Friday, May 29, 2026

Chicago PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
REPARATIONS FOR TRUMP AND SLAVERY (WSJ – EXCERPT)
“There are plenty of reasons to be wary of President Trump’s so-called Anti-Weaponization Fund, which will compensate claimants who say federal law-enforcement or regulatory agencies targeted them for political reasons. These include the cost, nearly $2 billion in public funds, and the wrongful actions of many of the prospective recipients, including rioters who assaulted police officers on Jan. 6, 2021.
Here’s another reason: It will set a precedent that a future president could use to bypass Congress and the courts to implement wide-reaching policies without congressional support—including race-based reparations…
…The Anti-Weaponization Fund is to be funded by the department’s Judgment Fund, which Congress created to avoid having to approve payment of every monetary claim against the government…The administration of the Judgment Fund has relied on Justice Department attorneys to weigh carefully and fairly the litigation risk of suits against the government and using funds when settlement was prudent…
… But the Anti-Weaponization Fund is the wrong remedy, and one that risks making the government even more lawless.” - Darin R. Bartram practices appellate and constitutional law in Washington
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/reparations-for-trump-and-slavery-e439ce51
My comment: Usually when Congress creates a slush fund administered by bureaucrats, there are tight limits on the amount of funds and how they are spent. More than a billion dollars? Unbelievable. Shame on Justice Department attorneys who authorized this although it is possible they were told authorize this or you’re fired. That’s the way Justice has worked under Trump as he has pursued his enemies thru lawfare.
 
CHICAGO PMI (Crypto Briefing.com)
“The May Chicago Business Barometer blew past the 50.3 consensus estimate by a wide margin, marking one of the sharpest monthly gains in recent memory. The Chicago Business Barometer, better known as the Chicago PMI, came in at 62.7 for May 2026.” Story at…
https://cryptobriefing.com/chicago-pmi-surges-62-7-beats-forecast/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7580.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.32.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.437% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
 
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +15 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
7 of the last 10-days have been up-days; while 14 of the last 20 have been up. Further, the last 7 days have all been higher than the day before. Those are lofty numbers that should bring a down-day soon.  Looking at sentiment numbers, we see that retail-traders (mom and pop) are betting more to the bear side now. They are betting the down-day will be soon. If they keep that up a little longer the sentiment indicator will switch from neutral to bullish.
 
The S&P 500 made another all-time high today, Friday. 114 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is well below the 5-year average, but still high enough so that we don’t have a bearish signal. Breadth remained positive - more than 50% of stocks on the NYSE have been up over the last 10-days. These stats show breadth is good enough that we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon.
 
Indicators look good. Bear signals are unremarkable, but we’re due for a down day and traders are actually betting on a down-day. When it comes, the down-day might be a good time to add to stock holdings in the trading portfolio.
 
I am not convinced an Iran settlement is at hand, but we may find out soon. According to news sources, Trump is meeting with advisors in the Situation Room now.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.