Wednesday, August 26, 2026

GDP … PCE Prices … Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently measured, does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP does not distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP also does not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by going into debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar spent on education or new means of production, is counted the same as every dollar spent on epic bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice
 
GDP (WSJ)
“The U.S. economy grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2026, the Commerce Department said in an updated estimate published Wednesday, unchanged from the initial report published last month.” Story at…
 
PCE PRICES (CNBC)
“Prices consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose slightly in July, according to the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauge. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed uses as its preferred forecasting tool, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.7% [slightly higher than forecast] ...stripping out volatile food and energy costs, core PCE posted respective gains of 0.2% and 3.3%, in line with forecasts.” Story at…
 
DURABLE GOODS (WSJ)
“Demand for U.S. durable goods jumped more than expected in July, according to data published by the Commerce Department.
Total orders for durable goods—which comprise goods meant to last three years or more—increased in July by 1.1%...” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about a point to about 0.3% to 7676.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 15.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.647% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Indicators reversed back down, but the news was good after the close.
 
Nvidia reported earnings as expected – 100% gain in revenues – unbelievable! The markets liked the news and NVDA was up 4% in after-hours trading. NASDAQ futures are up 1% as I write this, so I think this is the fuel needed for markets to move higher and make new-highs.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until we see indicators improve.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         
My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
  

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