… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
I was talking to an acquaintance the other day. He said today’s socialist politicians were “socialist light.” These days, people believe what they believe. There was no point in arguing, but I suggested he read the Democratic Socialist of America (DSA) website; I’m sure he didn’t. The following is taken from their website. It speaks for itself.
WHAT IS DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM? (DSA)
“Capitalism is a system designed by the owning class to exploit the rest of us for their own profit. We must replace it with democratic socialism, a system where ordinary people have a real voice in our workplaces, neighborhoods, and society…We want to collectively own the key economic drivers that dominate our lives, such as energy production and transportation. We want the multiracial working class united in solidarity instead of divided by fear. We want to win “radical” reforms like single-payer Medicare for All, defunding the police/refunding communities, the Green New Deal, and more as a transition to a freer, more just life.”
https://www.dsausa.org/about-us/what-is-democratic-socialism/
Under About Us: “We are socialists because we reject an international economic order sustained by private profit, alienated labor, race and gender discrimination, environmental destruction, and brutality and violence in defense of the status quo.”
https://www.dsausa.org/about-us/
Statements from their website:
- “Today is the centenary of Fidel Castro, and the Democratic Socialists of America recognize the historic significance of both this day and the man. Fidel was an organizer, a fighter, and endures as a stalwart symbol of anti-imperialist struggle and self-determination for the Global South. DSA has a long history of solidarity with the Cuban people, their revolution, and their self-determination. We choose this historic day to recommit ourselves to acting in solidarity with the Cuban people and to starkly opposing Marco Rubio’s genocidal war against the Cuban people and US imperialism writ large.“
 
- “DSA recognizes that ICE serves to divide and repress the working class. In contrast, we stand with the multiracial working class and understand that only together can we defeat capitalism. Shamefully, Republican and Democratic politicians have supported this fascistic tool of nakedly racist class exploitation…We demand the abolition of ICE, and free movement of all people everywhere!”
 
- “Democratic Socialists of America calls on Senator Sanders to take a firm stance against Israeli genocide and call for a permanent embargo on arms to Israel.”
 
- “…we know that sea-surface temperatures have continued to rise year after year due to extractive industries and the capitalist death cult. Further, the mass death and displacement felt across New Orleans [from Hurricane Katrina] was directly caused by organized abandonment of the State at every level of government…The deployment of Blackwater mercenaries to “protect” storefronts from people attempting to get food and dry clothes extended the overreach of DHS to make private contractors money at the expense of working people fighting for their lives.”
My cmt: That’s all I can take. We are electing people whose goal is to overthrow the United States government.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7745.
-VIX rose about 7% to 15.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.726% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT

We never like to see a chart like this. Down all day with a close at the low is a worrying sign that may suggest downside, follow-thru Tuesday. Unfortunately, we didn’t get the up-day that was suggested by the good market internals Friday. Signals are never always correct.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.
 

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.