“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“The headline [Philly Fed Manufacturing] index increased to 47.4 in August, a five-year high, after having jumped to 41.4 in July. Expectations were for a meaningful decline to 25.0.” Story at…
https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-philly-fed-manufacturing-index-rose-to-five-year-high-in-august
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims dropped to 206,000 last week from a revised 212,000 the week before. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week ups and downs, ticked up to 204,000 last week from 199,750.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-claims-jobs-economy-layoffs-5d623586cbcf1eeeaa6ee6cc084ed566
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.9% to 7641.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.704% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
We always hate to see these down-day slides into the close.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +5 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
down, a BEARISH sign.
While the technical indicators aren’t all that bad, the
idea that markets might be reacting to the federal National Debt of more than
40 trillion dollars is frightening. (This is about $400,000 for every taxpayer
who actually pays taxes.) Here’s what Mark Sobel, Chief economist and vice
chair, Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, had to say on the
subject of longer-term bond yields;
“Our massively irresponsible fiscal policy is the root cause of the sustained rise in longer term yields…If the Trump administration wishes to take the pressure off long term yields, it needs to reduce our reckless fiscal deficits. Increasing buybacks is akin to spitting into a gale force wind.”
If he is correct, and it is time to pay the piper,
markets will be facing severe trouble. Indicators don’t suggest that now. We’ll
have to see how the S&P 500 reacts when it reaches its levels of support.
Back in early August, the downturn reversed when the lower
Bollinger Band was breached. Now, the
lower Bollinger Band on the S&P 500 is 7325, about 4% below today’s close. That
number varies and is likely to decline if markets continue down. Another level
of support for the S&P 500 is its 50-dMA (around the lower trendline). The
Index is 1.4% above its 50-dMA as of today’s close. So, the question is; will
the dip buyers move in around the lower trendline?
Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time,
Bottoms almost always occur on/or near
Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days
occur at bottoms. Today is not likely to have been a short-term bottom; there were
no Bottom Indicators flashing “buy.”
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims dropped to 206,000 last week from a revised 212,000 the week before. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week ups and downs, ticked up to 204,000 last week from 199,750.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-claims-jobs-economy-layoffs-5d623586cbcf1eeeaa6ee6cc084ed566
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.9% to 7641.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.704% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
We always hate to see these down-day slides into the close.
“Our massively irresponsible fiscal policy is the root cause of the sustained rise in longer term yields…If the Trump administration wishes to take the pressure off long term yields, it needs to reduce our reckless fiscal deficits. Increasing buybacks is akin to spitting into a gale force wind.”
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
