Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
DURABLE GOODS (WSJ)
“Demand for U.S. durable goods was unchanged in August, according to data published by the Commerce Department.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/durable-goods-orders-were-unchanged-in-august-a75bce16
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 7743.
-VIX declined about 5% to 14.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 5.165% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -1 to -5 (5 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
Thursday and Friday, the 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator was signaling “Buy”. What does that mean? I asked Google AI:
“A "buy" signal from a 5-day or short-term variation of Norman Fosback’s High-Low Logic Index means the market has experienced a washout or extreme capitulation, signaling a potential market bottom.“
 
Fosback’s Hi/Lo Index uses new-highs and new-lows in its calculation. Friday, there were only 12 new-highs. When was the last time we saw 12 or fewer new, 52-week highs? I had to go back to April 2025 when there were only 7. That was the day after the bottom of a 19% correction. (There was only 1 on the day of the bottom.) Go back further and we note only 8 at the bottom of the 25% correction in October of 2022. Low numbers are signaling bottoms; thus, we can validate Fosback’s analysis with that simple check.
 
The S&P 500 is less than 1% from all-time highs.
 
It may be time to add to stock holdings. Let’s see what happens next week.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.