Small Business Optimism … JOLTS (Job Openings) … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (Business Insider)

“The National Federation of Independent Business' small business optimism index hit the highest level in the survey's 45-year history in August.” Story at…

https://www.businessinsider.com/nfib-small-business-optimism-index-record-high-trump-tax-cut-credit-2018-9

 

JOLTS (Bloomberg)

“U.S. job openings rose in July to a fresh record and the biggest share of workers since 2001 quit their positions, adding to signs of labor-market strength that may push wages higher, Labor Department data showed Tuesday.” Story at…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-11/job-openings-in-u-s-increased-in-july-to-record-6-94-million

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 2889.

-VIX dropped about 5% to 13.39. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.981% as of this post.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators dipped from -5 to -6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -22 to -34 indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago.  As has been true for some time, indicators still have a negative outlook at this point, but are not all that bad.  We haven’t seen a concerted warning by topping indicators either.  

 

It still looks like the Index will fall to the 50-dMA. We’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the indicators really turn south. Both Utilities and XLI spread vs. the S&P 500 are more bullish than a few days ago, so it doesn’t look like a serious drop is near.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEGATIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Tuesday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

Jeffrey Saut Commentary Excerpt ...Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

JEFFREY SAUT COMMENTARY EXCERPT (Raymond James)

“The D-J Transports made a new all-time high recently, which has not been confirmed by a new all-time high in the D-J Industrials. That, as of now, is a Dow Theory upside non-confirmation that we will be monitoring in the sessions ahead… Speaking to the Buying Power and Selling Pressure indices, Buying Power has seen a slight softening since late July, while Selling Pressure has experienced a slight increase. This does not meaningfully impact our bullish “call.” – Jeffrey Saut. Commentary at…

https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy

 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 2877.

-VIX dropped about 5% to 14.15. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 2.934% as of this post.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators dipped from -4 to -5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -11 to -22 indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago.  Indicators still have a negative outlook at this point.

 

It still looks like the Index will fall to the 50-dMA. We’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the indicators really turn south. Both Utilities and XLI spread vs. the S&P 500 are turning more bullish, so it doesn’t look like a serious drop is near.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEGATIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Monday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

Payroll Report (Non-Farm Payrolls) … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

PAYROLL REPORT (Bloomberg)

“Nonfarm payrolls rose 201,000 from the prior month, topping the median forecast for 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent, still near the lowest since the 1960s...the Federal Reserve [remains] on track to lift interest rates this month and…another hike in December [is no] more likely.” Story at…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-07/u-s-payrolls-rise-201-000-while-wage-gains-accelerate-to-2-9

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 2872.

-VIX rose about 2% to 14.88. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped up to 2.939% as of this post.

 

Perhaps we’ll have to wait for turnaround Tuesday. It is likely that investors will worry over the weekend and continue selling so we might see a big down day Monday.  That would set us up for Turn-round Tuesday when the Pros decide enough-is-enough and start buying again…of course, we have no crystal ball – selling may continue. Here’s a quote and link discussing Turnaround Tuesday:

“In every case, Tuesday has shown the most gains—hence the Turnaround Tuesday reputation appears well earned. Though it wasn’t the highest percentage in every case, it was the strongest day on average.” Analysis at…

https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/daytraders-29311/

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -8 to -4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -2 to -11 indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago.  Indicators still have a negative outlook at this point.

 

It still looks like the Index will fall to the 50-dMA. We’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the indicators really turn south. Both Utilities and XLI spread vs. the S&P 500 are turning more bullish, so it doesn’t look like a serious drop is near.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEGATIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Friday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

Jobless Claims … Factory Orders … ISM Non-Manufacturing Index … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Marketwatch)

“Initial jobless claims, a tracker of sorts for layoffs in the U.S., fell slightly in mid-August and hovered near a 49-year low.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-slightly-cling-near-49-year-low-2018-08-23

 

FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)

“New orders for U.S.-made goods fell slightly more than expected in July, weighed down by weak demand for aircraft, but signs of a pickup in business spending suggested that the manufacturing sector remained on solid ground.” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-manufacturing/u-s-factory-orders-fall-in-july-on-weak-aircraft-demand-idUSKCN1LM219

 

ISM SERVICES (Washington Post)

“U.S. services companies grew at a faster pace in August as business activity and new orders rebounded. The Institute for Supply Management says that its services index rose to 58.5 last month…” Story at…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/us-services-firms-saw-growth-quicken-in-august/2018/09/06/a8da6b7a-b1e1-11e8-8b53-50116768e499_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.dd02fadb1797

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Thursday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.4% to 2878.

-VIX rose about 5% to 14.65. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.875% as of this post.

 

Dip buyers continue to buy. I guess they are trading the fact that the market has been down 4-days in a row. In the last six, it has only been up one day and that was a very small move up.  Some people trade those numbers; it works until it doesn’t. On a longer-term basis, the market has been up 5-days in the last 10. For me, that is not a tradable number…but I tend to avoid these very short-term trades.  It’s too much like work.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -9 to -8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from +14 to -2 indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago.  Indicators continue to slip and have a negative outlook at this point.

 

We’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the indicators really turn south.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEGATIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Thursday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

Fallen Angels (Leading stocks have slipped) … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

Thursday will be another busy day so expect a late post…

 

FALLEN ANGELS (Real Investment Advice)

“…though the body of the Administration has been diseased (in multiple ethical, moral lapses and in other ways), many of those same commentators who dismissed the mortgage derivative problem (a decade ago) suggest ignoring the indictments and guilty pleadings of multiple campaign members of the Trump team and the general culture of corruption that currently exists in Washington, D.C. — that these considerations will have little impact on policy, the balance of power, the economy and our markets. Many of the same “talking heads” also possess the same view that bearish market analysis rationale may sound superior to the bullish case – but, they too, in the main, are wrong.” – Doug Kass. Commentary at…

http://realinvestmentadvice.com/kass-fallen-angels-lessons-learned/

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% to 2889.

-VIX rose about 6% to 13.91. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.902% as of this post.

 

The S&P 500 made a new high 4-days ago. It is not a surprise to see Sentiment (%-bulls is selected Rydex, long-short funds) rise after a top.  Sentiment always peaks after the top as dip buyers move in. For the most part we don’t know if the dip buyers are correct – the markets could bounce up from here – however, it is beginning to seem less likely that we’ll see a bullish resolution without a drop of 3-5% off the top. That would put us somewhere around the 50-day moving average, of 2821 (at present). We’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped from -6 to -9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from +32 to +14 indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago.  Indicators continue to slip and have a negative outlook at this point. Some specific details follow:

 

Utilities are outperforming the S&P 500.

 

Bollinger Bands and the Overbought/Oversold Ratio have cleared their overbought signal, but today RSI was a high 76 and that’s nearly overbought (RSI, 14-day, SMA).

 

Regarding my comment yesterday that the Price indicator might trigger a Sell signal, on refection, I’ve reconsidered. The Price indicator has a long way to drop before it would register a bearish value so a flip to sell on the long-term indicator seems unlikely unless the markets deteriorate a lot more.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals switched to NEGATIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).  

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Wednesday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

ISM Index … Construction Spending … Auto Sales … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

ISM INDEX (MarketWatch)

“American manufacturers are on a roll: Business conditions surged in August to a 14-year high, according to a a survey of industry executives. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index jumped to a 14-year high of 61.3% last month from 58.1% in July.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-manufacturers-growing-at-fastest-pace-in-14-years-ism-finds-2018-09-04

 

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (MarketWatch)

“Construction expenditures were 0.1% higher in July than in June, led by the public sector, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Outlays in July were 5.8% higher than a year ago.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-ticks-up-in-july-led-by-public-sector-2018-09-04

 

AUTO SALES (WSJ)

“Most major auto makers reported increases in U.S. sales in August, though analysts expect vehicle demand to cool for the remainder of 2018 amid higher interest rates and rising vehicle prices.” Story at…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-auto-sales-maintain-momentum-for-now-1536084002

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2$ to 2897.

-VIX rose about 2% to 12.86. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was flat at 2.898% as of this post.

 

I measure Sentiment as %-Bulls (Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the amounts invested in Rydex/Guggenheim mutual funds. Sentiment is once again negative with a %-bulls value of 92%. This is the same as we saw during the dot.com era on a std deviation basis. We matched this extreme back in May-June 2015 shortly before a 12% correction.

 

Sentiment isn’t by itself a great indicator since sentiment can remain elevated for some time, but it is a level that has preceded pullbacks of varying degrees – from small pullbacks of a couple % to major crashes. Other indicators are mostly negative too.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped from -5 to -6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from +42 to +32 indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago.  Indicators continue to slip and have a negative outlook at this point. Some specific details follow:

 

Utilities are outperforming the S&P 500.

 

Bollinger Bands and the Overbought/Oversold Ratio have cleared their overbought signal. RSI was a neutral 69 (RSI, 14-day, SMA).

 

The Price indicator that measures the size of up moves vs the size of down moves is slipping, but it remains neutral. If Price and Sentiment indicators both switch to negative, it would give us a sell signal in the longer-term indicator.  We’re not there yet and I’d be guessing if I said I knew which way the markets may go now; therefore…

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Tuesday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.