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Wednesday, October 8, 2025

FED Minutes ... Consumer Credit ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from Zero to +1 (1 more Bull indicator and Bear indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; turned higher – a Bullish sign, but just barely. The 10-day has been flopping back and forth and without much direction so the 10-day isn’t helping yet.

On Monday there was another new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5.1% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.

There was high, unchanged volume Wednesday. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are now mixed. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

The Index closed 11.8% above its 200-day moving average. 10% to 15% implies sell. For my purposes, when the S&P 500 is 12% above its 200-dMA, it is too stretched and issues a bearish signal. I don’t act on one signal, but it does warn that it may not be a good time to add new money to stocks. This can get to 20% above the 200-day, but that is a very rare occurrence.

8 of the last 10-days have been up, but that is not yet suggesting a reversal. If Thursday is an up-day, it would be unusual enough to give us another bear-signal.

Sentiment improved and is now neutral.

There has been a regular bubble-discussion on CNBC regarding whether the markets are currently in a bubble. That discussion isn’t as informative as it might seem. If there is a bubble, markets can still go higher. At major tops, my indicators have given top-warnings and I have reduced stock-holdings to avoid major declines; I enjoy the bubble discussions, but I don't act on them.

Repeating from yesterday: All-in-all, it appears that the S&P 500 will drift back towards its lower trendline. That is partly a guess since the indicator spread remains neutral and either up or down would be in line with my indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish to neutral. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

ROBERT REICH SOUNDS ALARM (Huffington Post)
“Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich on Monday warned the United States could be heading toward ‘either martial law or civil war.’
In his latest Substack newsletter, the former Bill Clinton Cabinet member noted President Donald Trump’s talk of invoking the Insurrection Act could see him deploying troops domestically “despite any court orders stopping him.” Story at...
Robert Reich Sounds The Alarm On Trump Fear That’s ‘Unfolding Very Rapidly’
My cmt: These sorts of fears seem overblown. Will Trump fail to follow court orders? Even if he did, the military is trained not to follow illegal orders, at least they were when I was an Army officer. If there is a court order in place, the military won’t go against it. That calls into question the current Hegseth policy of attacking civilian boats in international waters because intelligence says they are drug-boats. This is probably illegal, but it is a gray area for the time being – courts have yet to rule. I wonder how the pilots feel?

MOODY’S SAYS THERE WAS NO JOB GROWTH LAST MONTH (Fortune)
“Everyone from Wall Street to the Federal Reserve knows America’s labor market is weakening—adding just 22,000 jobs according to the BLS’s latest release for August—but are unsure by how much.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a note over the weekend that data from Revelio Labs, which scrapes info from professional networking sites like LinkedIn to estimate jobs growth, shows that employment increased by some 60,000 roles in September...“Averaging the Revelio and ADP employment estimates for September suggests that there was essentially no job growth during the month...The bottom line is that not having the BLS jobs data is a serious problem for assessing the health of the economy and making good policy decisions. But the private sources of jobs data are admirably filling the information gap, at least for now. And this data shows that the job market is weak and getting weaker.” Story at...
America saw ‘essentially no job growth’ last month, warns Moody’s, and any roles added were in three wealthy states

1999 ALL OVER AGAIN (Seeking Alpha)
“Current market conditions feel like it’s 1999, according to Paul Tudor Jones, Tudor Investment Corporation founder and CIO and Robin Hood Foundation founder and board member. During a CNBC interview, Tudor Jones said that while this comparison to the dot-com bubble period wasn’t made lightly, “all the ingredients are in place” for a similar market environment.” Story at...
Paul Tudor Jones: ‘It feels like 1999’ as ingredients are in place for a dot-com bubble environment
My cmt: Jones noted that during the 1999 dot.com bubble the S&P 500 topped in March.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.4% to 6715.
-VIX rose about 5% to 17.24.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.127% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from +4 to Zero (equal Bull indicators and Bear indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; turned down again – a Bearish sign.

Sentiment has become so bearish that it is now sending a bullish signal. That seems counter intuitive, but this is a contrarian indicator. When too many investors are bearish, it may be near a bottom. This time though, we need to be wary regarding this indicator. Traders have been watching the same thing I have seen – markets have been up 7 days in a row. That is a rarity and traders have been betting that a down-day is overdue for the last 3 or 4-days. Sometimes the bears are right as they were today.

Tuesday was Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

One of my breadth measures, (10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE) turned negative again today. Internals and indicators have not shown a lot of strength while the major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, etc.) have been steadily climbing for the last 3-weeks.

All-in-all, it appears that the S&P 500 will drift back towards its lower trendline. That is partly a guess since the indicator spread remains neutral and either up or down would be in line with my indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish to neutral. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, October 6, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

SCHUMER’S HYPOCRACY
“What if I persuaded my caucus to say I’m going to shut the government down, I am going to not pay our bills unless I get my way? It’s a politics of idiocy, of confrontation, of paralysis.” – Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) complaining about the Republican led shutdown in 2013. (from CNN)

TURLEY BLOG EXCERPT
“Hashmi [Ghazala Firdous Hashmi, candidate for Virginia’s next lieutenant governor] is continuing the Democratic narrative that democracy is dying in America and tyranny is on the rise. It was the mantra before the last election when Republicans secured control of both houses and the White House. Despite that failure, Democrats are doubling down on rage rhetoric and unhinged claims... Some will hear such inflammatory comments as a license to take extreme actions, including violence.” – Jonathon Turley, Turley holds the Shapiro Chair for Public Interest Law at The George Washington University Law School, where he teaches torts, criminal procedure, and constitutional law.
https://jonathanturley.org/2025/10/03/rip-constitution-democratic-candidate-for-virginia-lt-governor-holds-startling-rally/#more-236564

TRUMP CLAIMS U.S. CAN GROW ITS WAY OUT OF DEBT – NOT SO FAST SAYS RAY DALIO (Fortune)
“We are becoming a country that is so rich, so powerful...With the kind of growth we have now, the debt is very low relatively speaking. You grow yourself out of that debt.” – Donald Trump
“President Donald Trump’s assertion that U.S. growth can tame debt echoes what Ray Dalio has called the most dangerous phase of a debt cycle: when leaders mistake prosperity for immunity.” Story at...
Trump says the U.S. can grow its way out of $37 trillion in debt. Ray Dalio’s debt-cycle research says not so fast
My cmt: Grow out of debt? Every President from Reagan to now has made that claim. Has it worked? Since 1980 the US has gone from near zero debt to $37-trillion. Inconceivable!

HOW TO MEASURE A BUBBLE (Felder Report)
“Ian Harnett argues, the current [AI] bubble may be approaching its ‘endgame.’ He writes, ‘Until recently, the missing ingredient was the rapid build-out of physical capital. This is now firmly in place, echoing the capex boom seen in the late-1990s bubble in telecommunications, media and technology [TMT] stocks. That scaling of the internet and mobile telephony was central to sustaining ‘blue sky’ earnings expectations and extreme valuations, but it also led to the TMT bust.’” From...
https://thefelderreport.com/2025/10/04/how-do-you-measure-a-bubble/

PROMISED RECESSION...SO WHERE IS IT? (Real Investment Advice)
“If the recession scenario plays out, equity valuations will likely compress, earnings estimates will fall, and risk assets will reprice lower...
...If the no-recession scenario materializes, markets may not be “all clear” either. Corrections occur annually and can impact portfolio performance and investor psychology...The S&P 500 is trading at multiples historically reserved for periods of strong, broad-based growth, leaving little margin of safety. Even modest disappointments could trigger corrections.
I always return to risk management here. As I’ve written many times, investing is not about making bold predictions but instead aligning portfolios to probabilities, protecting against the downside, and participating in the upside when it comes.
Today, that means remaining cautious even as markets cheer new highs. It means trimming exposure where valuations are stretched, holding a healthy allocation to cash and fixed income, and being selective in equity exposure. It means acknowledging that both outcomes—recession and no recession—are plausible and positioning accordingly.” Lance Roberts. Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/promised-recession-so-where-is-it/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was up about 0.4% to 6740.
-VIX declined about 2% to 16.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.158% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
No change from Friday: Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained flat – a Neutral sign.

There was a lot of “bubble talk” today on CNBC and also on the internet. Understandably so, valuations are stretched. That doesn’t mean they can’t stretch farther. When the S&P 500 made a new high today, 6.6% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is about the 5-year average, so that’s good news.

If investors had decided that valuations were too high and it was time to sell, we would see the markets narrowing. When valuations are too high, investors buy quality, i.e., more money gets concentrated in fewer stocks.

The Index closed 11.7% above its 200-day. For my purposes, when the S&P 500 is 12% above its 200-dMA, it is too stretched and issues a bearish signal. I don’t act on one signal, but it does warn that it may not be a good time to add new money to stocks.

The S&P 500 has had 7 up-days in a row. As previously noted, that sort of action suggests a down-day Tuesday. (I’ve been saying that awhile, but the market keeps going up.) We also note that 7 of the last 10-days have been up and 14 in the last 20-days, but that is not enough to suggest a more significant reversal.

I’m fully invested, but I have not seen enough to put any additional cash holdings into stocks. “Cash” in my money market is still earning 3.9%. So, the trick is to remain patient.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, October 3, 2025

ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

“What if I persuaded my caucus to say I’m going to shut the government down, I am going to not pay our bills unless I get my way? It’s a politics of idiocy, of confrontation, of paralysis.” – Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) complaining about the Republican led shutdown in 2013. (from CNN)

DO DEMOCRATS SUPPORT GIVING HEALTH COVEREGE TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS? (Fox)
"Raise your hand if your government plan would provide coverage for undocumented immigrants," NBC News anchor Savannah Guthrie asked while moderating the June 2019 debate followed by all ten Democrats on stage raising their hands.” Story at...
Unearthed debate clip goes viral against Dems as illegal immigrant health coverage becomes top issue

WHY QATAR CHANGED COURSE ON HAMAS (WSJ – Excerpt)
“It is too early to know if there will be an agreement to end the war in Gaza, and if so whether it will be implemented. But there is reason for President Trump’s optimism that Hamas might release hostages, give up its weapons and leave power. Change is afoot not in Gaza but in Doha—the government of Qatar is pressuring its protégés to accept the deal.
The regime, which thwarted the last hostage deal, changed its mind because the war has reached its home. After the Israel Defense Forces operated in five Muslim capitals—Gaza, Beirut, Damascus, Sana’a, and Tehran—it hit Doha...
Qatar is part of the problem, not the solution. Israel’s decision to strike there with quiet American approval marked a crucial moment in the war. It signaled that between the West and fundamentalist terror one must choose a side.” - Amit Segal, chief political commentator on Israel’s Channel 12 News and author of “A Call at 4 AM: Thirteen Prime Ministers and the Crucial Decisions that Shaped Israeli Politics,” forthcoming Oct. 14.” – Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-qatar-changed-course-on-hamas-20dff709?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgCACqY7RxOWA5Caetac88I-K8ojXycakjn5K9M_4lcgml2rFWoAnfzcl9WrSU%3D&gaa_ts=68e01907&gaa_sig=_KQ0ZfKdi-8rdNSgl3nNGg0e0oFvjBBxpPWMCUSoM0M_y2zY-ptEAm8zjJG0bNaY_HOixPsGLa_i1n6aHG2_hQ%3D%3D

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010... Commentary in general indicated moderate or weak growth, with more isolated observations of supplier delivery challenges. Employment continues to be in contraction territory, thanks to a combination of delayed hiring efforts and difficulty finding qualified staff.” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/september/

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING / PAYROLL REPORT – Not available due to Government shutdown.
“The release of U.S. jobs data typically has traders and investors glued to their screens at 8:30 am waiting for the all-important numbers. This Friday, however, is giving some a sudden surplus of free time along with the problem of trying to piece together the economic jigsaw puzzle from other sources.” From Reuters at...
https://www.reuters.com/business/payroll-data-ice-gives-wall-street-newfound-free-time-big-problem-reading-2025-10-03/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was little changed (up 1 pt) at 6716.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 16.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.121% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +2 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it is now flat – a Neutral sign.

At today’s high, the S&P 500 was 11.9% above its 200-dMA. The Index closed 11.4% above its 200-day. For my purposes, when the S&P 500 is 12% above its 200-dMA, it is too stretched and issues a bearish signal. I don’t act on one signal, but it does warn that it may not be a good time to add new money to stocks.

At the high today, the S&P 500 was at its upper trendline. That is another issue that is a concern when considering adding to stock holdings.

There was another up-day Friday, though just barely. The S&P 500 has had 6 straight days up. As noted yesterday, that sort of action suggests a down-day Monday. We also note that 7 of the last 10 have been up, but that is not enough to suggest a more significant reversal.

Same as yesterday: The S&P 500 made a new high today. 5.9% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is below average, but not enough for this indicator to send a correction warning.

I’m fully invested, but I have not seen enough to put any additional cash holdings into stocks. “Cash” in my money market is still earning 3.9%. So, the trick is to remain patient.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, October 2, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +6 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and slipped to a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.

The S&P 500 has had 5 straight days up. That sort of action suggests a down-day Friday. We also note that 7 of the last 10 have been up, but that is not enough to suggest a more significant reversal.

Same as yesterday: The S&P 500 made a new high today. 4.6% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is below average, but not enough for this indicator to send a correction warning.

Again, there was high, unchanged volume Thursday. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are now mixed. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

Seems like I have been saying this for a while: I am still waiting for indicators to improve further before I add to stock holdings. Indicators are Neutral and the 10-day is still headed down.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

ADP Employment ... ISM Manufacturing ... Construction Spending ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“But as happens in Wall Street all too often, what the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end.” – Warren Buffet, 1989 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.
My cmt: The Buffett Indicator sits at a whoppingly bearsish 213%, topping dot-com bubble levels. For more, see my earlier post BUFFETT INDICATOR IS BRIGHT RED – WORSE THAN 1999 BUBBLE at...
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2025/09/dallas-fed-manufacturing-momentum.html

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

US TAKES A STAKE IN LITHIUM AMERICAS (CNBC)
“Lithium Americas shares rose 35% in extended trading Tuesday after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Bloomberg that the U.S. government will take a small stake in the company...[It is] the first such stake proposed for a Canadian company. Lithium Americas trades on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the NYSE but is incorporated and domiciled in Canada.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/30/lithium-americas-stock-pops-as-government-takes-a-stake-to-boost-nevada-project.html
My cmt: In my 34+year career in Government, the expenditure process was inviolate. It takes two Bills for the Government to spend money: (1) An Authorization Bill that spells out the specifics of a future expenditure. (2) An Appropriations Bill that sets the amount of money to be expended, typically in a Fiscal Year. Both are approved by Congress and signed into law by the President.
Occasionally, there would be an accidental, illegal, unauthorized expenditure in my office. This might happen if a contractor was directed to perform work before a change order was completed. This resulted in potentially harsh penalties for the employees involved along with a long and drawn-out paper trail of explanations regarding how it happened, why it was unintentional and how it would be avoided in the future.
I write this just to point out that the Trump administration has no authority to spend the money described above. Congress authorized the United States to buy a portion of Intel via the CHIPS Act. For Lithium Americas, there is no such authorization. Yet Congress doesn’t raise a peep. Why? The GOP are a bunch of spinless wimps who have ceded their power of the purse to Donald Trump. The Democrats don’t complain because they (Warren, Saunders, Ocasio-Cortez, et al.) are in favor of the government taking shares of companies because they support a Communist playbook. When the Democrats are back in power, they will be able to control private companies. Inconceivable!

ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via PRNews wire)
“Private sector employment shed 32,000 jobs in September and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the September ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab")... "Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-shed-32-000-jobs-in-september-annual-pay-was-up-4-5-302572337.html

ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report...The overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of contraction in April 2020.” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/september/
My cmt: Manufacturing is expanding, but at a slower rate than previously.

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Construction Dive)
“Nonresidential construction spending slipped 0.2% in July...The dip marks the third straight monthly decline, with tariffs climbing and labor shortages reemerging. ‘It may be a bleak second half of the year for the construction industry,’ said Anirban Basu, ABC chief economist.” Story at...
https://www.constructiondive.com/news/construction-spending-slide-deepens/759102/

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 416.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6711.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.100% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
As noted previously, the price action suggests that weakness in the markets has ended, but the 10-dMA of indicators hasn’t quite bought that conclusion even though the daily indicators have improved. After 3 days down, the S&P 500 has now made 4-days up.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +3 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and improved to a mildly Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.

The S&P 500 made a new high today. 5.8% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is below average, but not enough for this indicator to send a correction warning.

There was extreme high, unchanged volume Wednesday. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are now mixed. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

I am still waiting for indicators to improve further before I add to stock holdings. Indicators are only slightly bullish and the 10-day remains headed down.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)