Future fears from a Minyanville
article, “4-reasons for Caution,” by Conor Sen: I won’t get into the 4-reasons. In a nutshell:
“Either the economy
remains strong and the Fed will have to hike rates sooner than people think, or
a post-election Congress means the Bush tax cuts finally expire and 2013 is all
about closing the deficit, which will harm growth and hence risk asset prices.
Either way, we can't win.” Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/stock-market-trends-equity-risk
WILL THE MARKET BE SURPRISED?
Comment from Art
Cashen on CNBC: With all this warm weather, one must wonder whether the
seasonal adjustments will hold up for employment when the data is revised down
the road.
Remember John Hussman’s
comment a while back that employment figures were actually down? The only reason they were reported up were
the seasonal adjustments that the Government makes to account for weather. They get revised a month later based on the more
accurate numbers. Now that is the way it
works, so this isn’t a Government conspiracy; but with all the warm weather – the adjustments
could make the data look more optimistic than the reality. Time will tell.
THE MARKET
he S&P 500 was
down 0.7% Thursday and VIX rose 3% to 15.6.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis
dropped to HOLD today pushed down by volume to the downside and the fall in the
VIX.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into
the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.
I remain 100% long in the long-term
portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM
System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
