San Francisco (Marketwatch) …"(Apple) will initiate a quarterly dividend of
$2.65 a share in the fourth fiscal quarter of this year, which ends Sept. 31."
That was big
news. They have been sitting on so much
cash for so long that the market had not baked it in (IMO) so we moved up again
today.
Sentiment continues
to be fairly low with only 43% of traders betting long over the last
5-days. Considering how the market has
run-up, it surprises me how low it is.
Traders have only bet right 3-times over the past 2-weeks because many
have been betting the market will go down.
Since S&P volume
data I use is not released until late, I usually use NYSE volume data and
estimate S&P 500 volume for the NTSM model each day. The next day, I enter the actual S&P 500
data into the model. It rarely changes
anything, but last Friday it did. The
S&P 500 volume was high on Friday and it pushed the NTSM analysis to BUY
Friday at the close. That is generally
positive, but I don’t place too much value in it since the output just missed a
sell about 2-weeks ago.
The S&P 500 is
12% above its 200-dMA. In the past year
or two, the ceiling (or starting point for a correction) has been 15%. That is interesting, but it isn’t officially
in the NTSM analysis because in 2009 that stat made it all the way up to
20%. We probably won’t do that this time
because 2009 included the major bear-market, bottom. Bottom line, we can go up further, but not
much before we see a correction. We will
need a correction or a lot of sideways movement before the market can move
significantly higher.
John Hussman, PhD,
remains negative and his numbers have gotten even worse than last week. See his weekly Market Commentary: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html
The S&P 500 went
up nearly ½% today.
NTSM ANALYSIS
Today, Monday at the
close, the NTSM analysis moved back to HOLD, mainly because the VIX rose 4%
today to 15.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the stock market at S&P
500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in the long-term portfolio
(100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the
link is on the right side of this page).
