For the week ended 14
March (the latest data available), investors took $2.9-billion out of domestic
long-term stock mutual funds. That was
about $1.5B more than was removed the previous week. That amount is miniscule in the big picture,
but it does show that there is generally some fear in the mom-and-pop investor group. There haven’t been inflows in the US equity
funds since mid-February.
The 5-day %-bull
ratio I calculate from selected Rydex (now Guggenheim) funds is 49% as of
yesterday’s close. That also indicates
that traders (at least the amateur traders) have been betting the market will
fall.
I think that means we
can go higher from here. The S&P 500
is 11% above its 200-dMA. We can at
least go up another 4%.
The S&P 500 was
down a few points Wednesday to 1403. VIX fell too.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis
also agrees. It moved to BUY today. (PRICE, VOLUME, and VIX indicators are all
buy. The SENTIMENT indicator is neutral.)
That doesn’t mean it
couldn’t quickly switch to a sell; we’ll see.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into
the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.
I remain 100% long in the long-term
portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM
System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
