From
Bloomberg: “The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits rose
to 362,000 last week, a level consistent with an improving labor market. Applications for unemployment insurance
payments increased by 8,000 in the week ended March 3…Economists (had) forecast
352,000 claims
….’The level of claims is still quite low,’ said Jennifer Lee, a senior
economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. ‘I’m still encouraged by what
we’ve seen in the labor market in recent months.” Full story at:
(Reuters) -
McDonald's Corp on Thursday reported global February sales at established
restaurants that missed Wall Street's target, primarily on European weakness,
and warned that economic uncertainty could hamper profit growth, sending shares
down more than 3 percent. Full story at:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/08/us-mcdonalds-idUSTRE8170YW20120308?type=companyNews
Jobs claims are OK
because the increase was so small that most consider it noise in the
statistics. McDonalds is a bit more
concern because it shows weakness in Europe.
You may recall that during the US recession, even at its lowest point,
McDonalds did well because people ate more at McDonalds rather than Ruth Chris
or Le Maison de Expensive. Since
McDonalds is seeing reduced earnings in Europe, it may indicate that the conditions
there are worse than is currently thought.
The market expectation is for a “shallow” recession in Europe.
The market shrugged
off any such concerns Thursday and the S&P 500 was up 1% to 1366. VIX fell 6%
to 18.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis
remains HOLD today and indicators are improving each day.
Even sentiment has
dropped from 67% Bulls on Tuesday down to 60% as of yesterday’s close. (The NTSM sentiment indicator is always a day
behind since the data isn’t available until later tonight.)
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into
the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.
I remain 100% long in the long-term
portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM
System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
Just a reminder: 100%
invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks. Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance
for risk.
