Here are the thoughts
of the Prophets of Doom from Market Watch.(23 March 2012)
1. Peter Schiff, chief
executive of Euro Pacific Capital:
“…the worst
investment now is bonds, because it's the one asset that hasn't been crushed.
The second-worst option is cash,
because the Fed insists that inflation is not a threat…”
2. Harry Dent Jr.,
who heads research and forecasting firm HS Dent, said the recovery in the
economy and markets is…being fueled by quantitative easing measures in the U.S.
and Europe…he expects a near-term selloff followed by a summertime rally…After
that, Dent sees a market peak in 2013 or 2014 and then another crash.
3. Gary Shilling,
Economic consultant, said stocks are
vulnerable because the U.S. consumer is worn out, and that puts businesses, and
the broader economy, on a weak footing…Shilling recommends a focus on companies
that pay a high dividend,
particularly in utilities and consumer staples...”
4. Charles Biderman,
who heads TrimTabs Investment Research, said he's bullish on stocks given that
the Fed's cheap money is levitating prices. But, he added, at some point stocks
are going to drop…"If buybacks slow," he said, "that would be
the time to start getting out."
5. Robert Prechter,
head of market forecasting firm Elliott Wave International and the most bearish
of the five strategists, said investors should shun every asset class that's
popular now, including stocks, commodities, precious metals and bonds. Prechter
maintains there are parallels between today's U.S. economy and the Great
Depression…"Hold cash, and keep it safe," Prechter said. "There
will be another buying opportunity, probably about four years from now." Full story at:
If we look at the last
Bear market (1966-1982), I think a crash prediction for 2013 is entirely
possible, because I think we could get to 1550 by then. In the mean time, I will watch the NTSM
analysis for guidance.
THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was up
0.3%% Friday to 1397 and VIX fell 4.5% to 14.9.
Today the lower trend
line for the S&P is around 1370 about 2 or 3% below today’s close. Since we didn’t get that low, it looks like
there are still plenty of dip-buyers and late-comers who want to buy
stock. I am still cautiously optimistic
that we can get a little higher. The
S&P 500 is now 10.6% above the 200-dMA so I don’t think we can go too much
higher (maybe only 4 or 5%) before we track down to the 200-dMA. That doesn’t change my longer term view that
we can get back to the previous highs in the 1550 area.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis
remained HOLD today.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the stock market at S&P
500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in the long-term portfolio
(100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the
link is on the right side of this page).
