“Of all the over-dramatized nonexistent threats, the silly worry of the day is the US is at risk of default if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling…Earlier today, I saw a couple of articles outlining how and why a US default could happen. Well, it won't, and there is no need for all the surrounding drama either.” Full story at…
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Mish notes that the tax receipts for any month exceed the interest on the debt
so a default is not going to happen. He
continues with an interesting analysis.
MARKET RECAP
Thursday the
S&P 500 was UP about 0.76% to 1472 (rounded). VIX was DOWN more than 2% to 13.49.
NTSM
The numbers in
the NTSM analysis remain BUY.
Thursday VIX
switched to neutral, but positive numbers for Price and Volume keep the NTMS
indicators in the BUY position. “The
trend is your friend” and today the market convincingly broke above the 1467
level. One more close above 1467 and I’ll
buy some stocks! I have maintained a
VERY conservative, mostly out-of-the-market, minimally invested position because
I didn’t like the market action or the action of the Politicians. We still have a Debt ceiling thingy coming,
but the numbers are positive and as long as the trend is intact, I plan to go
with it. One thing though, no need to
rush. If the market closes Friday above
1467, I’ll wait until Monday before taking any action.
MY INVESTED
POSITION
Based on the SELL
signal, 7 November 2012, I moved out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P
500. Because of the negativity I have
noted from Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near 15% invested
in stocks. In spite of my concerns, the market has powered higher; I have revamped my buy-at-the-bottom protocols; and I plan to get reinvested at about 50%-stocks. I am planning a cautious re-entry position since it looks like the market is closer to a top than a bottom.
