“Laszlo Birinyi, a renowned market analyst…calls this (period of the bull market) the "exuberance" period, saying that's when the "fireworks" happen.
In fact, both the first and last stages historically serve up the best returns.
‘This is when all the people who have been reluctant and
hesitant to invest in the stock market start realizing…There's not going to be
another train coming so they better get on board.’
In previous bull markets, the last stage has yielded an
average increase of 40% for the S&P 500…the bull market could last another
year, or even two, depending on investor sentiment.”
http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/25/investing/bull-market-stocks/index.html
WHAT MIGHT BRING THE END OF THE BULL?
“Boston University Economics Professor Laurence Kotlikoff
is worried about America’s dire financial situation. Dr. Kotlikoff says, “The
situation is getting worse and worse and worse. We are running a massive six
decade Ponzi scheme, and it’s coming to a real threatening point.” Dr. Kotlikoff
calculates the real government deficit is enormous and it’s growing
exponentially. “It’s $222 trillion. Last year it was $211 trillion. We grew the
deficit by $11 trillion in one year,” charges Dr. Kotlikoff. He also says, “We
are actually in worse shape than any developed country. . . We are using
accounting that would make Bernie Madoff blush.” Kotlikoff thinks the Federal
Reserve could easily lose complete control of inflation and warns, ‘Ben
Bernanke is playing with fire here because we could have a tripling of the
price level.’”Story with link to video interview at…
http://usawatchdog.com/bernanke-playing-with-fire-laurence-kotlikoff/
BERNANKE ON THE DEFICIT (cnsnews.com, June 2010)
In testimony before congress…“There are various ways you could address
this – you can restructure entitlement programs [or] you can cut other things –
but at some point you need to address the overall budgetary situation. If you
don’t, you’ll get a picture like this one [pointing to a graph showing a steep
rise in interest rates and debt] where interest rates are rising and debt
outstanding is growing exponentially.’‘At that point, things will come apart,’ he said. ‘This [rise in debt] will stop, but it might stop in a very unpleasant way in terms of sharp cuts, a financial crisis, high interest rates that stop growth, [or] continued borrowing from abroad.’
‘...Maintaining a strong recovery and keeping interest rates low would
be assisted by a commitment by Congress to bring the deficit to a sustainable
level and the debt to a relatively flat level [compared] to GDP over the medium
term,’ he said.”
Story at...http://cnsnews.com/news/article/bernanke-things-will-come-apart-if-entitlements-are-not-reformed-and-spending
CATERPILLAR (from MarketWatch)
Heavy equipment maker Caterpillar
said ... its fourth-quarter net income exceeded analysts' expectations, after
adjusting for the cost of a soured deal to buy a Chinese maker of roofing
supports for mines...Caterpillar also announced guidance for 2013 that was
consistent with Wall Street's expectations. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-gain-on-caterpillar-profit-2013-01-28?siteid=yhoof2
MARKET RECAP
Monday, the
S&P 500 was down 0.2% to 1500 (rounded).
VIX was up 5%, to 13.57.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis
remained HOLD Monday.
I think the
market can go up from here. Everyone’s a
Bull now. I’ll be watching the S&P
500 vs. the 200-day moving average as a clue.
MY INVESTED
POSITION
Based on a BUY
signal 7 of 9-days, and more importantly, consecutive closes above the prior
high of 1466, I moved into the stock market at 1471 on the S&P 500 on 14
January. I am currently invested in a
range of near 50% invested in stocks. 
