“First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 last week to 330,000, down from 335,000 the previous week. That's the lowest level since January 2008.
It's unclear why claims have fallen so dramatically
recently, but economists point to seasonal distortions in the data, which seem
to happen every January. Over the last two weeks, initial claims have plummeted
by 45,000…‘Weekly data are noisy, particularly at this time of year, so keep
that in mind,’ said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets,"
Full story at...
US MACRO INDEX TURNED NEGATIVE (ZeroHedge, 22 Jan 2013)
"Today, for the first time in almost five months (thanks to misses on existing homes and the Richmond Fed) the US Macro Index turned negative. In the past this has marked the start of the market's realization that things are not just dipping but are cycling lower.” Full discussion at …
Chart from …
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-22/us-macro-turns-negative-worst-almost-5-months
ONE BIG MISS – APPLE (ZeroHedge)
“The most anticipated earnings release of the quarter has
come and it has been a dud, at least judging by the market's expectations and
its response. Because while EPS beats just barely (a far cry from the epic EPS
beats of Steve Jobs days) coming at $13.81 on expectations of a $13.53 print,
revenue outright missed, coming at $54.5 billion on expectations of a $54.9
billion Q1 2013 result.” – Tyler Durden, ZeroHedgehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-23/aapl-meets-eps-misses-revenues-fails-impress-line-iphone-sales-total-cash-grows-1371
After hours Wednesday apple fell 10%, all the way down to 462. Thursday is fell another 12% and was around
450 the last time I looked. Less than
6-months ago it was a 700-dollar stock - so much for leadership. Apple’s problem, if there is one, is that
their monopoly on smart phones and tablets is gone since the other guys are
starting to catch up with them. Today’s
WSJ noted that the 4th quarter was a week shorter and their numbers
were not as bad as they appeared.
Apple’s PE was reported at 10 by Yahoo finance – S&P 500 PE was
reported at 13. It’s hard to believe
that Apple is trading at a significant discount to the S&P 500.
MARKET RECAP
Thursday, the
S&P 500 was unchanged at 1495 (rounded).
VIX rose about 2%, to 12.69.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis
remained HOLD Thursday.
As it has been
for several days, only one indicator, Price, is positive. Volume is very nearly positive. Sentiment and VIX are neutral, but VIX too is
closer to positive than negative.
More of the same:
Breadth is positive with advancing stocks outpacing decliners over the longer
term. New-Highs vs. new-lows are slowing
their advance and may be starting to top out; that would be a short term
negative if it happens.
Late day action (the
so-called smart money) was up today, but it has been trending down for the past
week or so, but not enough to be of concern.
MY INVESTED
POSITION
Based on a BUY
signal 7 of 9-days, and more importantly, consecutive closes above the prior
high of 1466, I moved into the stock market at 1471 on the S&P 500 on 14
January. I am currently invested in a
range of near 50% invested in stocks. 
