“Overall, the labor market's performance in 2012 was pretty lackluster and hiring was not strong enough to get the nation out of its economic rut, economists said.
The economy added 155,000 jobs in December, bringing the total number of jobs created in 2012 to 1.84 million, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.8%...Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected the report to show that 150,000 jobs were created last month and the unemployment rate remained unchanged.”
(I had some nice graphics to insert but Blogger.com isn’t accepting a Picture from my computer. Hopefully this will get fixed.)
Chart and full story from CNN/Money at
http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/04/news/economy/december-jobs-report/index.html
Both the unemployment rate
and the Labor Force Participation rate (those employed or un-employed, but
looking for work) were unchanged. (The
labor force participation rate accounts for those who have given up looking for
work, while the unemployment rate only looks at employment vs. the population
of employment age. The unemployment rate
will drop if people quit looking for work – all other things being equal.) As Doug short points out, the Labor Force
Participation rate is at a level last seen in 1979.
See the Chart and extensive
discussion from dShort Advisor Perspectives at…
ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEY
UP (FROM CNN/Money)
“The Institute of Supply
Management's monthly reading on the U.S. manufacturing sector came in at 50.7
in December, moving the index off its 2012 low of 49.5 in November. The index
is compiled from a survey of manufacturing supply managers, and any number above
50 indicates the sector is growing. The December expansion marked only the third time the sector grew in the last seven months.” Full story at…
http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/02/news/economy/ism-manufacturing/index.html
POLITICS AS USUAL
The NY/NJ politicos screamed about how the
House didn’t act on the Sandy relief bill designed to help Hurricane Sandy
recovery. As Paul Harvey might have
said, “Here’s the rest of the story.” The
WSJ noted that more than 25% of the $60-billion appropriations bill consists of
funds for “social service grants” that have nothing to do with Sandy. There’s even $150-million for Alaska
fisheries. The House will pass a smaller
Flood Insurance appropriation soon. We’ll see if the rest passes the House in
its present form. Apparently, the pledges
to avoid “Congressional adds” to the President’s budget (earmarks) are being
ignored by the Senate.
It is time to RAIN on the politicians – Remove
All Incumbents Now.
MARKET RECAP
Friday
the S&P 500 was UP about 0.5% to 1467 (rounded). VIX fell 5% to 13.83.
There are no more worries –
Even Hans Solos agrees; “Everything's under control. Situation: normal…everything's perfectly fine now. We're fine.
We're all fine here now…”
NTSM
The NTSM was HOLD again Friday.
Friday’s close above 1466 means that the
S&P 500 has now closed above its prior high. While I have reservations about the extreme
sentiment readings, I can’t let the market get too far ahead. If the S&P 500 closes a bit higher I’ll
start buying back in. Sometimes the
trend is your friend, even if I don’t trust him right now.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the SELL signal, 7 November 2012, I
moved out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P 500. Because of the negativity I have noted from
Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near 15% invested in
stocks. 
