DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (Marketwatch)
“Orders for durable or long-lasting goods flattened out
in August after a sizable gain in the prior month, pointing to ongoing
difficulties for American manufacturers. Stripping out transportation, orders
sagged 0.4%...” Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (fuelfix)
“Crude oil stockpiles fell for the fourth consecutive
week, declining by nearly 2 million barrels last week, the Energy Department
reported Wednesday. Gasoline inventories, however, rose 2 million barrel last
week. Both crude and gasoline stockpiles remain at historically high
levels.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.5% to 2171 at
the close.
-VIX fell about 5% to 12.39 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.57%.
This is going to sound like recent reports, because indicators
keep getting better; but here goes…
Indicators are still pointing up and my sum of
16-indicators moved up from +5 to +7. On
a 10-day basis indicators continued to improve. Sentiment (%-bulls in selected
Rydex/Guggenheim bull-bear funds) has declined to 65%-bulls and that’s enough
to suggest that the Index can make new highs.
Not all is bullish though. The advance-decline ratio remains
“overbought”. This indicator can be very
early and it can remain overbought for some time, so no need to worry yet.
I remain short-term bullish and 2200 to 2250 seems
likely. Long-term, I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a conservative-retiree
allocation) – that’s hold my nose bullish.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO): Established Thursday, 22 Sep.
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing
(NYSE): 58.6% (55.9% Tuesday.) A number above 50% is usually BULLISH for the
markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 54.8%.
(A value above
50% indicates an up-trend.)
- McClellan Oscillator: improved from -5 to +18 (percentage
calculation method).
- New-highs minus new-lows: +92 (It was +60 Tuesday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: +10.
In other words,
over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 10 each day.
Market Internals remained
positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the
Index. In 2014, using these internals
alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday the Price indicator was positive. Volume, VIX
& Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator
remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep in my long-term accounts
based on a number of indicators other than Long Term. Remainder is 50% G-Fund.
(Turns out I made my request for a transfer into the C-fund too late on
Thursday.) This is a conservative retiree allocation.
