“Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits dropped last week
to match the lowest level since April, a sign the labor market remains healthy
even as hiring moderates. Jobless claims declined by 8,000 to 252,000 in the week
ended Sept. 17…” Story at…
HOME SALES FALL (ABS News)
“Americans retreated from home-buying in August, as a
worsening inventory shortage appears to be hurting sales and pushing prices
higher…Americans retreated from home-buying in August, as a worsening inventory
shortage appears to be hurting sales and pushing prices higher.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.7% to 2177 at
the close.
-VIX was down about 10% to 12.02 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 1.63%.
As I wrote yesterday, quite a few indicators are
signaling a bullish move from here: Smart Money (last hour trading) is looking
up and has switched to a bullish stance; Money Trend reversed to the upside;
New-highs are bouncing from their lows and Thursday, new-high/new-low data confirmed
the upward move in the markets; Chart wise, the S&P 500 bounced from its
lower trend line and is headed up; VIX continues to fall; My daily sum of
16-indicators improved from -2 to +4 (+4 is a bullish stance.). Finally,
up-volume was elevated Wednesday and Thursday (89% and 77%) and that’s bullish.
I am bullish now and I added to long-term and short-term
stock investments Thursday as noted below. New highs are in the cards.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
The Trading Portfolio is small and I enjoy trying to beat
the market. Keep it small; don’t bet
your retirement on trading. That said…
I bought the 2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO) this morning in the
trading portfolio. Even with the recent 7% gain on the VXX trade I need to make
up some ground for the shorts I held too long.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) improved to 52.9% Thursday. It was 49.1% Wednesday. A number above
50% is usually BULLISH for the markets short-term.
On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing
stocks climbed to 55.2%. A value above 50% generally indicates an
up-trend. The McClellan Oscillator improved
from +12 to +40 (percentage calculation method).
New-highs outpaced New-lows. The spread (new-highs minus
new-lows) improved to +153 Thursday. (It was +52 Wednesday.) The 10-day moving average
of the change in spread was -2. In other words, over the last 10-days, on
average, the spread has decreased by 2 each day. (New-high/new-low data reversed
to the upside and is now bullish confirming the bullish view of other
indicators.)
Market Internals remained
neutral on the market, but I am quite bullish. This indicator is likely to be
positive tomorrow if the market continues upward.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday the Price indicator was positive. Volume, VIX
& Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator
remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Thursday,
22 Sep in my long-term accounts based on a number of indicators other than Long
Term.
