GDP-3rd ESTIMATE (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy grew at a modestly faster pace in the second
quarter than previously estimated, but the latest data confirms the expansion
decelerated in the first half of the year. Gross domestic product, a
broad measure of goods and services produced across the economy, expanded at an
inflation-adjusted 1.4% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter…”
Story at…
JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)
“Applications for unemployment benefits rose 3,000 to
254,000 in late September, but the low level of initial claims points to a
steadily improving labor market in which jobs are the easiest to find in years.”
Story at…
ANTIBIOTIC RESISTENCE SOLVED? (Sciencealert.com)
“A 25-year-old student has just come up with a way to
fight drug-resistant superbugs without antibiotics….Shu Lam, a 25-year-old
PhD student at the University of Melbourne in Australia, has developed a
star-shaped polymer that can kill six different superbug strains without
antibiotics, simply by ripping apart their cell walls…the SNAPPs that Lam
has designed are so large that they don't seem to affect healthy cells at all.” Story
at…
My cmt: Lab testing on mice seems miraculous with no
resistance after multiple generations.
It’s too early, but one wonders, “Could Nano-technology replace drugs?”
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.9% to 2151 at
the close.
-VIX rose about 13% to 14.02.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped slightly to
1.576%.
Stocks began falling around noon when word circulated
that Hedge Funds were pulling funds from Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank shares sold off earlier this
week and were down about 6% today. They are bigger than Lehman was so this seems
to be a concern. (Some peg the Lehman failure as the start of the Financial
crisis.)
Thursday the S&P 500 closed near its lower trend line. Volume was about 15% above the monthly norm
on the NYSE. No point in getting too wound up over increased volume since it
was up about 10% yesterday and that was on an up-day.
The size of the down-move Thursday was statistically
significant and that means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical
parameters and, in about 60% of the time, that leads to an up-day the next day
(Friday).
My daily sum of 16-indicators moved down from +7 to +1.
This series shows a lot of fluctuation so a smoothed value is more telling. On a 10-day basis, indicators improved significantly
so, overall, indicators still remain bullish. Money Trend and Smart Money
indicators remain looking up too.
I remain short-term bullish and 2200 to 2250 seems
likely. Long-term, I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a conservative-retiree
allocation) – that’s hold my nose bullish.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO): Established Thursday, 22 Sep.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 53.2% (58.6% Wednesday.) A number above 50% is usually BULLISH
for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 54.6%.
(A value above
50% indicates an up-trend.)
- McClellan Oscillator: improved from +18 to -16
(percentage calculation method).
- New-highs minus new-lows: +77 (It was +92 Wednesday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: +5.
In other words,
over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 5 each day.
Market Internals switched
to neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday the Price, Volume, VIX & Sentiment
indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23
Sep in my long-term accounts based on a number of indicators other than Long Term.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund. (Turns out I made my request for a transfer into the
C-fund too late on Thursday.) This is a conservative retiree allocation.
