“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for
the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in August to 124.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5
percent increase in July, and a 0.2 percent increase in June. “While the U.S.
LEI declined in August, its trend still points to moderate economic growth in
the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and
Growth Research at The Conference Board.” Press release at…
More from Advisor Perspectives at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was down about 0.6% to 2165 at
the close.
-VIX was up about 2% to 12.29 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.62%.
Indicators I mentioned yesterday are still pointing up. My
sum pf 16-indicators remained at +4. On a
10-day basis it has improved a lot. I remain short-term bullish. Longer term I
am hold-my-nose bullish.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
My Trading Portfolio is small and I enjoy playing. Keep it small; don’t bet your retirement on
trading. Further, these are my trades and are provided as information and
entertainment only. (Have a laugh at my bad trading!)
That said…
I bought the 2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO) Thursday, 22 Sep in
the trading portfolio. Even with the recent 7% gain on the VXX trade I need to
make up some ground due to the shorts I held too long.
Short–term trading is based on 4-indicators: Chart analysis;
Sum of 16-Indicators; Money Trend; & Smart Money (late-day trading). THIS IS EXPERIMENTAL; I HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE
TO BACKTEST THIS SHORT-TERM TRADING SYSTEM DUE TO THE JUDGEMENT REQUIRED AND
THE DIFFICULTY AUTOMATING THE SIGNALS.
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 55.5% (52.9% Thursday) A number above 50% is usually BULLISH
for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 54.9%.
(A value above
50% indicates an up-trend.)
- McClellan Oscillator: dropped from +40 to +14
(percentage calculation method).
- New-highs minus new-lows: +77 (It was +153 Thursday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: +7.
In other words,
over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 7 each day.
(New-high/new-low data is now bullish confirming the bullish view of other
indicators.)
Market Internals switched
to positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Friday the Price indicator was positive. Volume, VIX
& Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator
remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund in the TSP) Thursday,
22 Sep in my long-term accounts based on a number of indicators other than Long
Term.
