NEW HOME SALES (LATimes)
“Sales of new homes retreated in August, one month after
surging to the highest level in nearly nine years. Activity fell in all regions
of the country except the West. New home sales dropped 7.6% last month…” Story
at…
LOW OIL PRICES ARE NOT THE REASON OIL COMPANIES ARE GOING
BANKRUPT (OilPrice.com)
“…when
the idea [was] that [the] world was short of crude supply, the thinking became that
oil was a one way trade. This gave Wall Street the confidence that lending
money against high cost reserves to develop more high cost reserves was a sound
practice…Furthering the Ponzi scheme was Central Bank policies of zero percent
interest rates.” Story at….
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was down about 0.9% to 2146 at
the close.
-VIX was up about 18% to 14.5 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.61%.
Indicators are still pointing up, but my sum of
16-indicators slipped from +4 to zero.
On a 10-day basis it continued to improve. Was today’s action all about
Monday’s debate? I have no idea. I guess we’ll find out Tuesday. Oil was up over 3% Monday. Perhaps stocks will catch up to oil after the
debate is over. I remain short-term
bullish.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
My Trading Portfolio is small and I enjoy playing. Keep it small; don’t bet your retirement on
trading. Further, these are my trades and are provided as information and
entertainment only. (Have a laugh at my bad trading!)
That said…
I bought the 2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO) Thursday, 22 Sep in
the trading portfolio. That will have to go soon if the market continues down.
Short–term trading is based on 4-indicators: Chart
analysis; Sum of 16-Indicators; Money Trend; & Smart Money (late-day
trading). THIS IS EXPERIMENTAL; I HAVE
NOT BEEN ABLE TO BACKTEST THIS SHORT-TERM TRADING SYSTEM DUE TO THE JUDGEMENT
REQUIRED AND THE DIFFICULTY AUTOMATING THE SIGNALS.
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 51.1% (55.5% Friday) A number above 50% is usually BULLISH
for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 54.9%.
(A value above
50% indicates an up-trend.)
- McClellan Oscillator: dropped from +14 to -13
(percentage calculation method).
- New-highs minus new-lows: +25 (It was +77 Friday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: +3.
In other words,
over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 3 each day.
(New-high/new-low data is now bullish confirming the bullish view of other
indicators.)
Market Internals
switched to neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these internals
alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Monday the Price indicator was positive. Volume, VIX
& Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator
remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep in my long-term accounts
based on a number of indicators other than Long Term. Remainder is 50% G-Fund.(Turns
out I made my request for a transfer into the C-fund too late on Thursday.)
