“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more
money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
DEMOCRATS DECEPTION (WSJ)
“As they campaign for office, they present a kind of
idealized version of themselves to the electorate as mainstream Americans,
seeking merely to bring a little unity and compassion to a fundamentally great
country in need of reform. Once in office they act as if they have a mandate to
remake a benighted country, to reorder an unjust system, to replace American
exceptionalism with European social democracy, and to rewrite the nation’s
values with the precepts of their cultural Marxism.... Is anyone fooled? The answer, I am afraid, is yes. Every time.” - Gerard
Baker, Wall Street Journal’s Editor at Large.
My cmt: This was certainly true of Biden. He campaigned
in the center and governed from the left.
PCE PRICES / PERSONAL INCOME / CONSUMER SPENDING (CNBC)
“The Commerce Department reported Friday that the personal
consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% on the month and was up 2.5%
from the same period a year ago, exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus
estimates... Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE also increased
0.2% for the month but was up 2.6% from a year ago... personal income increased
0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate, while consumer spending rose
0.5%, in line with the forecast...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/30/pce-inflation-july-2024.html
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business
Barometer) edged up to 46.1 in August from 45.3 in July. The latest reading is
better than the 45.0 forecast but keeps the index in contraction territory for
a ninth straight month.” Story at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/08/30/chicago-pmi-edged-higher-in-august
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 5648.
-VIX fell about 4% to 15.00.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.909%
(compared to about this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I
had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained well to the bull side at 4
Bear-signs and 16-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) improved to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear
indicators). The 10-dMA continued down, but this is a 10-day average so it will
be slower to turn higher; no worry yet.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Volume was low until investors decided today’s news was
good. Markets took off a little after noon
and plowed higher into the close. Volumes on the NYSE finished 20% higher than
the monthly norm suggesting a return of the Bulls.
My system counts strong Utility (XLU) momentum as a
bearish sign, but that momentum is not necessarily always negative. Now that interest rates are expected to fall,
Utilities are seen as a dividend play, making them a buy for conservative
investors. In addition, utilities need to expand to meet AI server electrical
demand, suggesting they are a growth play. I’ve never been too sure about that,
but my bearish position for this indicator may not be warranted. It is one of
the 4 bearish indicators in today’s 50-indicator total, but there are plenty of
Bull signs.
Charts are bullish; stocks had a strong close; new-highs
improved by more than 7 standard deviations; and indicators are very bullish.
“Looking good, Billy Ray! Feeling good, Louis!”
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VIX, VOLUME, SENTIMENT & PRICE are neutral. (This indicator
is more valuable for Sell-signals and during major Bear Markets.)
{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based
on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50”
indicator.}
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current
stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am
strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more
money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
HARRIS WANT TO TAX UNREALIZED GAINS (msn.com)
“Kamala Harris is backing a tax plan that’s got a lot of
rich people freaking out. The Biden administration wants to start taxing
unrealized gains. What’s that? Basically, it’s a tax on money you haven’t even
pocketed yet... You know how it goes—big news hits, and everyone starts buying
or selling like crazy. We could see a lot of that if people start panicking
about new taxes.” Story at...
Kamala
Harris plans to tax unrealized gains – What it means (msn.com)
My cmt: Currently investors don’t pay taxes until a stock
is sold. Details remain murky, but perhaps holdings would be valued at year end
and gains would be taxed (?). I’m guessing, but this plan could cause a
significant correction in markets even though it is proposed for the
ultra-rich. Looks like a dumb idea to me. Cracking down on grocery stores for
causing inflation is smart compared to this.
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life,
son." – Dean Vernon Wormer.
GDP 2ND EST (Reuters)
“...data showed the world's largest economy grew a little
faster than expected in the second quarter, modestly reducing expectations for
a larger 50 basis-point (bp) rate cut next month by the Federal Reserve. The
report also added to growing expectations that the United States could avoid
recession altogether, or go through just a mild one, analysts said.” Story
at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-holds-gains-ahead-us-inflation-test-2024-08-29/
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Benzinga)
“Initial jobless claims totaled 231,000 for the week
ending Aug. 24, down from the upwardly revised 233,000 the previous week and
slightly below the expected 232,000.” Story at...
https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/08/40624663/us-economy-expands-by-3-in-q2-surpasses-earlier-estimates-jobless-claims-little-moved-last-week
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 5592.
-VIX fell about 9% to 15.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.863%
(compared to about this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I
had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained well to the bull side at 5
Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) improved to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear
indicators). The 10-dMA reversed down. We’ll keep an eye on this; no worry yet.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Advancing-issues outpaced decliners by 2 to 1 on the
NYSE; advancing-volume doubled declining-volume; there were 323 new, 52-week
highs while there were only 17 new, 52-week lows; and the S&P 500 was flat?
It happens, but not often. I expect the
S&P 500 to catch up Friday with an up-day.
The PCE Prices report is due out tomorrow. That’s the Fed’s
favorite inflation gauge. Perhaps
markets are waiting for the news before buying large caps?
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VIX, VOLUME, SENTIMENT & PRICE are neutral. (This indicator
is more valuable for Sell-signals and during major Bear Markets.)
{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based
on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50”
indicator.}
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current
stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am
strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more
money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Blind obedience to authority is the greatest enemy of
truth.” - Albert Einstein
AUGUST SNOW IN CALIFORNIA (The Guardian)
“An unusually strong and rare snow system dusted
California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range early on Saturday, the first time
snow has fallen in August in the so-called Golden state in more than 20 years.”
Story at...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/25/california-winter-wonderland-summer
From...
https://jensorensen.com/2014/01/06/cartoon-scientists-global-warming-snowstorm/
DON’T BELIEVE HARRIS’ FANTASY PIVOT ON AN OPEN BORDER (NY
Post)
“Vice President Kamala Harris has rightly been tagged as
both a phony and a flip-flopper. Her latest on immigration combines these two —
a phony flip-flop.
The Beltway is all atwitter with news that “Harris
flip-flops on building the border wall.”...Harris herself has repeatedly spoken
out against the wall, calling it “a stupid use of money” and a “medieval vanity
project.” These are things she said in public, on camera. Harris has never
announced a flip-flop herself. Earlier flip-flops on other issues have been
announced by “anonymous aides on a Friday night.” Story at...
Don’t
believe for one minute Kamala Harris’ fantasy pivot on open border (msn.com)
SUPREME COURT REBUFFS BIDEN STUDENT DEBT PLAN (AP News)
“The Supreme Court on
Wednesday kept on hold the latest multibillion-dollar plan from the Biden
administration that would have lowered payments for millions of borrowers,
while lawsuits make their way through lower courts. The justices rejected an
administration request to put most of it back into effect. It was blocked by
the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.” Story at...
Supreme
Court rebuffs Biden administration plea to restore multibillion-dollar student
debt plan (msn.com)
My cmt: This isn’t final of course, but the Constitution
is clear – the Congress holds the purse strings of the country, not the
Executive Branch. Biden is ignoring the Constitution. It’s so ironic that Biden
complains about Trump abusing the Constitution while Biden is engaged in
abusing the Constitution. He knows it is illegal. He ridiculously claimed he got a law passed
authorizing Student Debt relief:
“President Joe Biden falsely claimed last week (October
2022) that he got his student debt forgiveness initiative passed by Congress. During
an on -camera discussion conducted by progressive organization
NowThis News and published online on Sunday, Biden told young activists that
they “probably are aware, I just signed a law” that is being challenged by
Republicans.” From CNN at...
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/24/politics/fact-check-biden-student-debt-congress-passed/index.html
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.8 million barrels from the
previous week. At 425.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
4% below the five year average for this time of year.”
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.6% to 5592.
-VIX rose about 11% to 17.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.839%
(compared to about this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I
had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained well to the bull side at 6
Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral
indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal
only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) remained +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The
10-dMA is still rising, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Overbought / Oversold Index and RSI have cleared their
overbought conditions so that’s good news.
Volume has been 20-25% below the monthly average for the
last 2 weeks. Reasons for that have been given as the FED announcement and
waiting for the NVIDIA earnings announcement.
The FED news was good. NVIDIA beat on all counts, but the price fell in
after-hours trading so investors were apparently disappointed. Futures are down
as I write this (7pm Wednesday) suggesting more selling. I don’t know. Indicators remain good. New-high numbers remain strong so I expect
that this weakness will end without too much damage to S&P 500 price. We’ll
see.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME, SENTIMENT & PRICE are neutral; VIX is bearish. (This
indicator is more valuable for Sell-signals and during major Bear Markets.)
{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based
on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50”
indicator.}
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. Utilities are leading momentum due to
the flight-to-safety trade from the recent pullback. I think Technology (XLK) or the Russell 2000
(IWM) is probably a better choice.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current
stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am
strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more
money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"Don't matter how much money you got, there's only
two kinds of people. There's saved people and there's lost people." – Bob
Dylan
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Overall consumer confidence rose in August but remained
within the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana
M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Consumers continued to
express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive
about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned
about the labor market.” Report at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5626.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.43.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.831%
(compared to about this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I
had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained well to the bull side at 7
Bear-signs and 16-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) remained +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The
10-dMA is still rising, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Same as yesterday:
The Overbought / Oversold Index remains overbought so a
down-day Wednesday would not be a surprise. This is a Breadth indicator and
breadth is improving quickly due to investors buying the small-cap names so one
wonders whether the signal remains valid. RSI is overbought too, but I prefer
to use this indicator with Bollinger Bands.
They are not oversold so I won’t worry about the RSI signal.
Overall, markets look bullish.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME is bullish; VIX, SENTIMENT & PRICE are neutral. (This
indicator is more valuable for Sell-signals and during major Bear Markets.)
{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based
on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50”
indicator.}
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. Utilities are leading momentum due to
the flight-to-safety trade from the recent pullback. I think Technology (XLK) or the Russell 2000
(IWM) is probably a better choice.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current
stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am
strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more
money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
DURABLE GOODDS (Investopedia)
“Demand at U.S. manufacturers is soaring if you include
aircraft — and stalling if you don’t... the Census Bureau’s report Monday on
July durable goods orders...showed manufacturers received 9.9% more orders than
they did in June... If you leave out transportation—a category that’s prone to
wild swings each month—orders actually fell 0.2%.” Story at...
https://www.investopedia.com/durable-goods-orders-soared-on-aircraft-orders-in-july-8701268
DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING INDEX (Dallas Federal Reserve)
“Texas factory activity exhibited little growth in
August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing
Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing
conditions, inched up three points to 1.6, with the low reading signaling only
slight growth in output from July. Most other measures of manufacturing
activity continued to indicate declines this month, though they were less
negative than in July.” Report at...
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2024/2408
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 5617.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.82%
(compared to about this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I
had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained well to the bull side at 7
Bear-signs and 16-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) declined to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
The 10-dMA is still rising, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Overbought / Oversold Index remains overbought so a
down-day Tuesday would not be a surprise. This is a Breadth indicator and
breadth is improving quickly due to investors buying the small-cap names so one
wonders whether the signal remains valid. RSI is overbought too, but I prefer
to use this indicator with Bollinger Bands.
They are not oversold so I won’t worry about the RSI signal.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME is bullish; VIX, SENTIMENT & PRICE are neutral. (This
indicator is more valuable for Sell-signals and during major Bear Markets.)
{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based
on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50”
indicator.}
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. Utilities are leading momentum due to
the flight-to-safety trade from the recent pullback. I think Technology (XLK) is probably a better
choice.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current
stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am
strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
KAMALA HARRIS OFFERS A “NEW WAY FORWARD” OF PLATITUDES
(WSJ)
“The Vice President was vigorous and confident in her DNC
acceptance speech, but her lack of substance leaves an opening for Donald
Trump.” Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/kamala-harris-speech-dnc-chicago-democrats-2024-election-donald-trump-856cb645?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
My cmt: The strongest part of the speech was her recount
of the bi-partisan Border Bill that Trump killed from behind the scenes. It
wasn’t a great bill, but it was a big step forward and the Border Patrol Union
supported it. Unless Republicans win the Presidency, House and Senate, it is
unlikely they will get a better bill. This was a huge blunder. When an opponent
gives you something, take it.
“The time to refute what Ms. Harris says is when she says
it, whatever the issue. Waiting to refute what she says, until after millions
of early voters have already voted, makes no sense. Nor is merely denouncing or
ridiculing what she said the same as refuting it.” – Thomas Sowell, Senior Fellow
at the Hoover Institution from a WSJ opinion piece.
My cmt: Kamala Harris is so far left it should be easy to
win this election, but Trump seems incapable of logically refuting her radical
ideas (Inflation was caused by Greedy grocery stores; Medicare for all; ending
right-to-work laws; cash payments to the poor; Green New deal; Net Zero &
the war on oil and gas; etc.) Trump’s name-calling reminds me of the first
George Bush campaign when Bush called Bill Clinton and the Democrats, “Bozos.”
Bush lost.
FED JACKSON HOLE SPEECH (CNBC)
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid the
groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead... ‘The time has come for policy
to adjust,’ the central bank leader said. ‘The direction of travel is clear,
and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving
outlook, and the balance of risks.’” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/23/fed-chair-powell-indicates-interest-rate-cuts-ahead-the-time-has-come-for-policy-to-adjust.html
NEW HOME SALES (HousingWire.com)
“The U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of
Housing and Urban Development reported that new-home sales hit a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 739,000 in July. This is a whopping 10.6% jump compared to June and a 5.6% rise year over year.”
Story at...
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/new-home-sales-pop-but-supply-is-shrinking/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 5635.
-VIX rose about 10% to 15.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.795%
(compared to this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I
had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained well to the bull side at 6
Bear-signs and 18-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) remained +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
The 10-dMA is rising, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Markets liked Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, not
much more to say about that. As a result, we had a new bullish sign today.
90% of the volume was up-volume today. The S&P 500
finished 1 point short of meeting the Lowry Research definition of a 90% upside
volume day. That’s close enough for me. As Lowry Research noted: "Thus, our 69-year record shows that
declines containing two or more 90% Downside Days usually persist, on a trend
basis, until investors eventually come rushing back in to snap up what they
perceive to be the bargains of the decade and, in the process, produce a 90%
Upside Day" - Identifying Bear
Market Bottoms - Lowry Research.
To be accurate, markets were not in a bear market and we
did not see 2 90% Downside Days, however, I think today’s action is very
bullish and the 90% up-volume day is just more evidence.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME is bullish; VIX, SENTIMENT & PRICE are neutral. (This
indicator is more valuable for Sell-signals and during major Bear Markets.)
{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based
on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50”
indicator.}
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. Utilities are leading momentum due to
the flight-to-safety trade from the recent pullback. I think Technology (XLK) is probably a better
choice.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current
stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am
strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
COOLING OCEAN TEMPERATURES BAFFLING (BGR)
“The Atlantic Ocean is cooling at an exponential rate, and
nobody is sure why. It's been more than a year of record-high global sea
temperatures, including being close to the collapse of the AMOC. Despite those troubles, though,
the Atlantic is now experiencing something quite baffling-temperatures are
cooling, and scientists are scrambling to figure out what's going on.” Story
at...
No
one can figure out why the Atlantic Ocean is cooling at record speed (msn.com)
My cmt: This just goes to show that the reports of the coming
demise of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) were just more
scare tactics from the global-warming, let’s-panic-the-public, media. The Atlantic
Ocean warms and cools on a multi-decadal oscillation, known as the AMO. The AMO
is one of the key drivers of hurricane formation along with weather patterns in
the African Sahel and El Nino/La Nina cycles. It would be good if the AMO is
switching from its current warm-cycle to a cool-cycle since it would suggest
fewer large hurricanes as shown in the chart below.
“The AMOC is a complicated trans-hemispheric circulation
driven by temperature and salinity imbalances (both influence water density).
The Gulf Stream, which brings bathwater-like temperatures as far north as Cape
Cod and helps moderate the climate of the UK, is part of the AMOC.
Figure 1. Plot of decadal average Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) Index for hurricane months (Jun-Dec) and decadal number of
U.S. landfalling hurricanes with Saffir-Simpson Category 3 or higher at
landfall. Data for AMO is from the National Centers for Environmental
Information Climate Prediction Center and data for hurricane landfalls is from the
National Hurricane Center. Horizontal axis shows 1900-2010 activity. (Source:
AIR)
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“Slightly more Americans filed for unemployment benefits
last week, but the number of claims remains at healthy levels. Jobless claims
rose by 4,000 to 232,000 for the week of Aug. 17, the Labor Department reported
Thursday... The unemployment rate rose for the fourth straight month in July,
though it remains low at 4.3%.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-71ffb00a1f90b155d7beebbd65f2f53f
My cmt: They used to teach in MBA programs that 4% was
the lowest possible unemployment rate.
NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Chicago FED)
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
decreased to –0.34 in July from –0.09 in June. [A zero value for the CFNAI has
been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend
(average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth] Two of the
four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from
June, and three categories made negative contributions in July. The index's
three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at –0.06 in July...”
Report at...
https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data
EXISTING HOME SALES (CNBC)
“Closed sales of previously owned homes rose 1.3% in July
compared with June to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.95 million
units, according to the National Association of Realtors. That was the first
gain in five months.
Sales were 2.5% lower compared with the same time
last year.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/22/july-home-sales-break-4-month-losing-streak-as-supply-rises-nearly-20percent.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.9% to 5571.
-VIX rose about 8% to 17.55.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.848%
(compared to this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I
had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained well to the bull side at 5
Bear-signs and 17-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) declined from +16 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear
indicators). The 10-dMA is rising, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Thursday there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
“Outside reversal is a price chart pattern in investing
that occurs when an asset’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and
low prices of the previous day. It is also known as a bullish or bearish
engulfing pattern. It can indicate a change in market trend and provide a
trading signal to investors.” From...
https://due.com/terms/outside-reversal/
While this is a concern, I need to point out that this
signal is often wrong, so I won’t get too concerned. Bullish Outside Reversals
are more often correct.
Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is set for 10 am
Friday. He will probably suggest that conditions are now skewed for a rate cut,
but a final decision would depend on data between now and the next Fed meeting.
If he is more bullish, or more bearish, markets will move.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: VOLUME is bullish; SENTIMENT & PRICE are neutral; VIX, is bearish.
(This indicator is more valuable for Sell-signals and during major Bear
Markets.)
{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based
on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50”
indicator.}
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish. Tomorrow, it’s all about the Fed Chairman’s
Jackson Hole speech. Stay tuned.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. Utilities are leading momentum due to
the flight-to-safety trade from the recent pullback. I think Technology (XLK) is probably a better
choice.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current
stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am
strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
