Retail Sales ... Jobless Claims ... NY FED Business Conditions ... Philly FED Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
NEW STUDY (The Cool Down)
“Last year, the Supreme Court limited the government's capacity to restrict pollution in small streams that spend the majority of the year dry. In a 5 to 4 vote in May of 2023, the Supreme Court limited the reach of the Clean Water Act, effectively curtailing federal protection for about 4.9 million miles of streams that flow only when it rains, per reports by the New York Times.” 
New study uncovers value lost after Supreme Court strips regional waterways' environmental protection: 'These streams convey a substantial amount of water' (msn.com)
My cmt: This is just another misleading report designed to undermine the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court is merely interpreting a poorly written law, The Clean Water Act. The law isn’t clear whether these small-stream, partially dry waters are covered. “The 1972 amendments to the Clean Water Act established federal jurisdiction over “navigable waters” (per the EPA). A dry stream isn’t a navigable water. An honest reading of the law would suggest that Congress never intended for seasonally dry streams to be covered. If this is really a problem, Congress could clarify the law.
 
SCIENTISTS SOUND ALARM OVER OLDER CITIES (The Cool Down)
“For many years, several coastal cities have been living with outdated sewage systems — and with climate change poised to trigger more extreme precipitation, these systems are at particular risk for flooding.” Story at...
Scientists sound alarm over issue plaguing older US cities: 'Making ... a difficult problem even more challenging' (msn.com)
 
My cmt: This article covers pollution from sewer systems; and yes, combined sewer systems, those that send both storm-runoff and sewage to sewage treatment plants, do pose a problem. The reason the Seine was unsafe for swimming during the Olympics was that rain overwhelmed the combined sewer-system in Paris, causing sewage-laden, untreated outflows to the river. But that has nothing to do with climate change.
While the media attempts to panic us with more climate change half-truths, I need to point out that, so far, there has been no increase in rain due to climate change. (ref., “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters” by Steven Koonin, Phd). Rain is lumpier, with higher intensity in some areas, but overall, total rain has not increased. While the Weather Channel anchors state frequently that warmer temperatures allow the air to hold more moisture and will cause more rain, they miss the fact that rain is caused by condensation as warm, moist air is cooled.  The cooler air that causes the rain is now also warmer (climate change), so not as much moisture is wrung out of a warm air mass. In other words, a warmer climate doesn’t necessarily result in more rain.   
Climate change is real. The Earth has warmed 1 degree centigrade over the last 100-years, but the panic and fear-mongering from the media is unwarranted.
...FYI: “The Cool Down” is a media channel that aims to be “America’s first mainstream climate brand.” Too bad they have joined the climate change, fear-mongers.
 
RETAIL SALES (CNN)
“The backbone of America’s economy remains solid, despite a slowing job market, elevated interest rates and still-high inflation. Sales at US retailers unexpectedly surged in July, the Commerce Department said Thursday, rising by a solid 1% from the prior month...” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/15/economy/retail-sales-july/index.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIIMS (NY Post)
“The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended Aug. 10, missing economists’ predictions of 235,000...” Story at...
https://nypost.com/2024/08/15/business/us-weekly-job-claims-fall-boosting-case-for-fed-to-cut-rates/
 
NY FED EMPIRE STATE BUSINESS CONDITIONS  / PHILLY FED MANUFACTURING (
“The New York Fed's Empire State business-conditions index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state, stayed in contraction territory for the ninth straight month in August. The general business-conditions index picked up 1.9 points - to negative 4.7 from negative 6.6 in July.
...The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index slowed to a reading of negative 7 in August from 13.9 in the prior month....Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions.” Story at...
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240815270/empire-state-philly-fed-factory-gauges-show-weak-manufacturing-conditions
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Yahoo News)
“US industrial output declined in July by the most since the start of the year on a pullback in factory production that included a Hurricane Beryl-related decrease in Gulf Coast refinery activity.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-industrial-production-declines-most-133004045.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.6% to 5543.
-VIX fell about 6% to 15.23. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.919% (compared to this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread count moved strongly to the bull side at 2 Bear-signs and 16-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) jumped from +5 to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is rising, confirming the buy signal from 5 days ago.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators jumped to the bullish side and markets agreed with a hugely bullish day. “Looking good, Billy Ray!  Feeling good, Louis!”
 
On CNBC Brian BelskI said, “We’ll probably have a retest of last Monday’s low.” That low was the close at 5186, about 6% below Thursday’s close. That is always possible, but I don’t see it. The 5 August low was tested on 7 August. It passed.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, SENTIMENT & PRICE are all neutral. (This indicator can be more useful for Sell-signals and also during extreme bear markets.)

{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50” indicator.}
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish. What’s not to like.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. Utilities are leading momentum due to the flight-to-safety trade.  I think Technology (XLK) is probably the best ETF to own now based on recent price action.
 
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.