Snow in California ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Blind obedience to authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” - Albert Einstein
 
AUGUST SNOW IN CALIFORNIA (The Guardian)
“An unusually strong and rare snow system dusted California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range early on Saturday, the first time snow has fallen in August in the so-called Golden state in more than 20 years.” Story at...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/25/california-winter-wonderland-summer

From...
https://jensorensen.com/2014/01/06/cartoon-scientists-global-warming-snowstorm/
 
DON’T BELIEVE HARRIS’ FANTASY PIVOT ON AN OPEN BORDER (NY Post)
“Vice President Kamala Harris has rightly been tagged as both a phony and a flip-flopper. Her latest on immigration combines these two — a phony flip-flop.
The Beltway is all atwitter with news that “Harris flip-flops on building the border wall.”...Harris herself has repeatedly spoken out against the wall, calling it “a stupid use of money” and a “medieval vanity project.” These are things she said in public, on camera. Harris has never announced a flip-flop herself. Earlier flip-flops on other issues have been announced by “anonymous aides on a Friday night.” Story at... 
Don’t believe for one minute Kamala Harris’ fantasy pivot on open border (msn.com)
 
SUPREME COURT REBUFFS BIDEN STUDENT DEBT PLAN (AP News)
“The Supreme Court on Wednesday kept on hold the latest multibillion-dollar plan from the Biden administration that would have lowered payments for millions of borrowers, while lawsuits make their way through lower courts. The justices rejected an administration request to put most of it back into effect. It was blocked by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.” Story at...
Supreme Court rebuffs Biden administration plea to restore multibillion-dollar student debt plan (msn.com)
My cmt: This isn’t final of course, but the Constitution is clear – the Congress holds the purse strings of the country, not the Executive Branch. Biden is ignoring the Constitution. It’s so ironic that Biden complains about Trump abusing the Constitution while Biden is engaged in abusing the Constitution. He knows it is illegal.  He ridiculously claimed he got a law passed authorizing Student Debt relief:
“President Joe Biden falsely claimed last week (October 2022) that he got his student debt forgiveness initiative passed by Congress. During an on -camera discussion conducted by progressive organization NowThis News and published online on Sunday, Biden told young activists that they “probably are aware, I just signed a law” that is being challenged by Republicans.” From CNN at...
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/24/politics/fact-check-biden-student-debt-congress-passed/index.html
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.”
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.6% to 5592.
-VIX rose about 11% to 17.11. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.839% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained well to the bull side at 6 Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) remained +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is still rising, a bullish sign.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Overbought / Oversold Index and RSI have cleared their overbought conditions so that’s good news.
 
Volume has been 20-25% below the monthly average for the last 2 weeks. Reasons for that have been given as the FED announcement and waiting for the NVIDIA earnings announcement.  The FED news was good. NVIDIA beat on all counts, but the price fell in after-hours trading so investors were apparently disappointed. Futures are down as I write this (7pm Wednesday) suggesting more selling.  I don’t know. Indicators remain good.  New-high numbers remain strong so I expect that this weakness will end without too much damage to S&P 500 price. We’ll see.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, SENTIMENT & PRICE are neutral; VIX is bearish. (This indicator is more valuable for Sell-signals and during major Bear Markets.)
 
{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50” indicator.}
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. Utilities are leading momentum due to the flight-to-safety trade from the recent pullback.  I think Technology (XLK) or the Russell 2000 (IWM) is probably a better choice.
 
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.