“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be
fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” - Albert
Einstein
“I think we want to be cautious about the gradual creep
of regulations and bureaucracy... If the government keeps making more rules
without doing away with others that are not working, eventually, we will be
able to do nothing... That’s an important rule for government to ensure that
the rules are correct and that the incentives are what we actually want them to
be for... [Where the government goes wrong is]“when they want to not just be a
referee on the field, they want to be a player on the field.” – Elon Musk from
CNBC at
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/10/elon-musk-government-is-the-ultimate-corporation.html
PPI (Bloomberg)
“US producer prices rose in July by less than forecast,
reflecting the first decline in services costs this year amid an ongoing
moderation in inflationary pressures.
The producer price index for final demand
increased 0.1% from a month earlier, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics
report released Tuesday. “ Story At...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-13/us-producer-prices-increased-by-less-than-forecast-in-july
NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose
2.2 points in July to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However,
this is the 31st consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98...
“Despite this increase in optimism, the road ahead remains tough for the
nation’s small business owners,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill
Dunkelberg. “Cost pressures, especially labor costs, continue to plague small
business operations, impacting their bottom line.” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/new-nfib-survey-inflation-continues-to-plague-main-street/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.7% to 5434.
-VIX fell about 13% to 18.12.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.848%
(compared to this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I
had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
(TSM) Index, a broad market index made up of stocks of U.S. companies not
included in the S&P 500 Index. – Added 7/29/2024
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread count reversed to the bull side at 9
Bear-signs and 12-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral
indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal
only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) improved from -5 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear
indicators). The 10-dMA is rising, confirming the buy signal from 4 days ago.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Bull indicators are
outpacing bear indicators. Not much more
to say other than we’d like to see more improvement. .
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to HOLD: VIX is bearish; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & PRICE are neutral.
This indicator can be late – now is the time to buy
not sell.
{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based
on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50”
indicator.}
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish, 78% invested in stocks (incld’g Mut Fnds
& ETFs) – I’m maxed out.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. Utilities are leading momentum due to
the flight-to-safety trade. I think Technology
(XLK) is probably the best ETF to own now based on recent price action.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current
stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am
strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
