Friday, August 16, 2024

Sentiment ... Housing Starts ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
 
“8th circuit blocks Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness plan.” Political commentary from Michael Ramirez at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
“Trade what you see (follow your indicators); not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
LETTER TO CONGRESS: BIDEN EPA RULES WILL CRIPPLE POWER PRODUCTION
“If the EPA’s new power plant rule survives court challenge, it will force the retirements of nearly all remaining coal generation plants and will prevent the construction of vitally needed new combined-cycle baseload gas generation,” Christie wrote in his letter. “This loss of vitally needed dispatchable generation resources will be catastrophic. There is very little FERC can do to reverse the effects of the EPA’s power plant regulation. FERC, as well as state regulators, who are responsible for resource adequacy in their states, will have to attempt to mitigate the negative consequences of the rule on reliability and consumer costs. I emphasize, however, that once critically needed power plants retire, they are gone.” - Mark Christie Letter, Commissioner Federal Energy Regulatory Commission....
My cmt: Once again we note that Politicians are just passing laws without a plan and without properly considering consequences. The President should first develop a plan to transition from fossil fuels. But as previously seen, there will be no transition until non-fossil fuel alternatives are less costly than existing....
 
... [From the WSJ] Bringing alternative energy costs below the price of fossil fuels is the only way that green solutions can be implemented globally, and not just by the elite in a few climate-concerned, wealthy countries. 
When politicians tell you the green transition is here and we need to get on board, they are really just asking voters to support them throwing more good money after bad. We need to be much smarter.” - Bjorn Lomborg, President of the Copenhagen Consensus, Visiting Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and author of “False Alarm.” Story at...
We are wasting $2 trillion a year chasing ‘green’ fantasies (msn.com)
 
QUANTITATIVE EASING & INFLATION (WSJ Letters)
“Until the global financial crisis, there used to be a near one-to-one relation between the total amount of U.S. currency in circulation and the size of the Fed’s portfolio. This stopped when the Fed adopted quantitative easing, and its securities holdings began to exceed the amount of U.S. currency.
Before the global financial crisis, the amount of currency outstanding and the Fed’s balance sheet were each in the $800 billion to $900 billion range. By 2016, the number of dollar bills used by the global economy had gradually increased to $1.5 trillion, but quantitative easing meant that the Fed’s balance sheet had ballooned to $4.5 trillion. Thus, the government had been printing money to the tune of $3 trillion...Even today, the difference between the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and the amount of dollar bills in circulation remains at $4.9 trillion.
Milton Friedman warned against the perils of good intentions. Quantitative easing was well intended. But we’ll be stuck with its inflationary effects for years to come.” - Jerry H. Tempelman, C.F.A., WSJ Letters. Opinions at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/were-stuck-with-quantitative-easing-effects-inflation-6d7bb334
 
KAMALA HARRIS WILL PAY YOU NOT TO WORK (WSJ)
“A recent study confirms that universal basic income—no-strings-attached benefit checks offered to recipients regardless of need or contribution to the program—discourages work. That’s relevant to the presidential race. Kamala Harris has called more than once for paying UBI-like benefits.” – Matt Weidinger, Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/kamala-harris-will-pay-you-not-to-work-7e8d4f02
 
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, inching up 1.4 index points. With election developments dominating headlines this month, sentiment for Democrats climbed 6% in the wake of Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee for president. For Republicans, sentiment moved in the opposite direction, falling 5% this month. Sentiment of Independents, who remain in the middle, rose 3%.” Report at... 
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
 
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding dropped to near a 1-1/2-year low in July due in part to Hurricane Beryl's disruption of activity...
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, tumbled 14.1%...Permits for future construction of single-family homes slipped 0.1% [in July]...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-124608549.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5554.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 14.93. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.883% (compared to this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread count moved more to super-bull side at zero Bear-signs and 20-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) rose from +14 to +20 (20 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is rising; the trend in price is clearly up.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today there were Zero Bear-signs in the 50-indicators. Needless to say, that’s very bullish. It’s almost scary bullish since the only way to go from here may be down.  But really, it should not be a problem. We expect very bullish signs at the end of a correction and we just finished an 8.5% correction. There is still plenty of upside before the index get’s to its upper trend line.
 
“This is not the recession you are looking for. You can go about your business.  Move along.”
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, SENTIMENT & PRICE are all neutral. (This indicator is more valuable for Sell-signals and during major Bear Markets.)

{The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September 2022 (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of the 2022 bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50” indicator.}
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish. What’s not to like.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. Utilities are leading momentum due to the flight-to-safety trade.  I think Technology (XLK) is probably the best ETF to own now based on recent price action.
 
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)

 

 
 
...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current stock position is above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.