CPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." – Dean Vernon Wormer.
 
“Taking stock as the markets enter a new week, we have fresh all-time highs in all major stock market indices except the Russell 2000... which I continue to believe will be at all-time highs this quarter.” – Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. From...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/post-rally-continues-small-caps-poised-for-aths/
 
CPI (CNBC)
“Inflation perked up in October though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.
The consumer price index, which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September... [The Core] 12-month inflation rate [rose] to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/cpi-inflation-october-2024.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about a point to 5985.
-VIX declined about 5% to 14.02. (The options players seem more bullish than the stock folks.) 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.451%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +3 is a neutral indication.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish.. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
Tuesday there was High, unchanged-volume. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been higher for a while. Does that mean a reversal lower is in the works? Possibly, but perhaps the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong. The last time we saw this signal the S&P 500 declined about 1% before turning higher.
 
“The Smart Money Index was popularized by Don Hayes in the 1990s. It is a technical indicator that attempts to gauge what the “smart money” is doing relative to the “dumb money” in the U.S. stock market... The idea here is that the majority of traders (news-driven, emotional) make their trades at the opening bell because of the overnight economic data and news. On the other hand, the more experienced traders jump into the market [near] the close having the chance to evaluate market performance. The difference reflects the net trading of these “smarter” traders.” From...
https://www.warriortrading.com/smart-money-index/
 
I use an alternative version since I only look at what investors are doing in “late-day-action.” In other words, I am tracking the “smart money” not the dumb money. Currently, my version of the Smart Money Indicator is falling showing that recently, late-day trading has been bearish.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets, but with indicators giving a neutral indication I wouldn’t add new money at this point. I’m not planning any change to the portfolio, but that could change if indicators continue to fall.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials.  It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.