“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
"Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the
probable reason why so few engage in it.” - Henry Ford
HOW DID TRUMP WIN?
Precinct by precinct, we see that the population centers
are Democratic strongholds.
As of Monday (and most votes have now been counted),
Trump has 74,878,000 votes. This is insignificantly more than the 74,224,000
votes Trump received in 2020. In 2020, Biden, who was considered a moderate at
the time, received 81,284,000 votes, far more than the 71,378,000 Harris
received in 2024. Smaller parties (Libertarian, Green, Independent and others)
received 2.7 million votes in 2024 compared to 2.3 million votes in 2020.
One of my “out there” republican acquaintances predicted
that Trump would win because moderate Democrats and Independents wouldn’t vote
for Harris. It looks like he was right. Apparently, about 10 million people who
voted in 2020 sat out the 2024 election.
As I suggested last week, Trump didn’t win this election, the Democrats
lost it. – Navigate the Stock Market Blog.
A DEMOCRAT PONDERS A THUMPING REBUKE (WSJ excerpt)
“The Democrats have come to regard white working-class voters as “reactionary and racist,” Mr. Teixeira [Ruy Teixeira, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute] says. Those voters already defected to Mr. Trump in 2016, but what killed the Democrats this year was “losing nonwhite working-class voters hand over fist.” Mr. Teixeira notes that Barack Obama “carried the nonwhite working class or noncollege voters by 67 points. Harris has carried them with 33. That’s a halving of the margin among those who should have been the bulwark, the core, of the Democratic Party.” – Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-democrat-ponders-a-thumping-rebuke-party-chose-hard-left-cultural-issues-over-progressive-centrism-ed02e17f?mod=trending_now_opn_1
“When the hyperventilating is done, when scholars go to
work, the real aberration of our time was the Democratic Party. In three
successive elections, it manufactured fake evidence that its opponent was a
Kremlin agent, orchestrated an intelligence conspiracy to cover up its own
candidate’s family scandal, then tried to orchestrate the nomination of a
senile president, which collapsed into chaos on the eve of its party
convention.
An unavoidable part of this story is a blinkered national press whose self-image has fallen out of any realistic relation to its true nature, which has taken the human propensity for lickspittleism and turned it up to 11.” -
Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ Editorial Staff. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/fake-news-and-the-untold-story-of-three-presidential-elections-trump-washington-post-d806f403?mod=opinion_feat3_columnists_pos3
- Lickspittle: “a person who praises and tries to please people in authority, usually in order to get some advantage from them” – Cambridge Dictionary.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6001.
-VIX rose about 0.2% to 14.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged (compared to about this time, prior trading day) at 4.306%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +15 is strongly bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is bullish too since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
Today, Monday, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high. 15.5%
of all issues on the NYSE made new 52-week, new-highs on those days. That’s a good number that demonstrates a
broad advance with healthy breadth.
Bollinger Bands have cleared their negative signal for
the time being.
Today’s 3 bear-signals are not cause for worry because
they are far outnumbered by bull-signs.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“The Democrats have come to regard white working-class voters as “reactionary and racist,” Mr. Teixeira [Ruy Teixeira, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute] says. Those voters already defected to Mr. Trump in 2016, but what killed the Democrats this year was “losing nonwhite working-class voters hand over fist.” Mr. Teixeira notes that Barack Obama “carried the nonwhite working class or noncollege voters by 67 points. Harris has carried them with 33. That’s a halving of the margin among those who should have been the bulwark, the core, of the Democratic Party.” – Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-democrat-ponders-a-thumping-rebuke-party-chose-hard-left-cultural-issues-over-progressive-centrism-ed02e17f?mod=trending_now_opn_1
An unavoidable part of this story is a blinkered national press whose self-image has fallen out of any realistic relation to its true nature, which has taken the human propensity for lickspittleism and turned it up to 11.” -
Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ Editorial Staff. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/fake-news-and-the-untold-story-of-three-presidential-elections-trump-washington-post-d806f403?mod=opinion_feat3_columnists_pos3
- Lickspittle: “a person who praises and tries to please people in authority, usually in order to get some advantage from them” – Cambridge Dictionary.
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6001.
-VIX rose about 0.2% to 14.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged (compared to about this time, prior trading day) at 4.306%.
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +15 is strongly bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is bullish too since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
I’m bullish on the markets.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
