SHORT BLOG TODAY, BASED ON DATA AROUND NOON – I’M TOO BUSY.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Harris was the first to drop out of the Presidential
race in December of 2019. Why did they think she could pull this off? Her
left-leaning positions were socialism on steroids.” – Navigate the Stock Market
Blog.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS (at about Noon)
-Wednesday, at noon the S&P 500 was up about 2% to 5900.
-VIX fell about 21% to 16.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.433%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +12 (12 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +12 is bullish – duh! The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) turned bullish too since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
No point in writing much today. Bullish is the theme.
Wednesday will probably finish as a statistically
significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my
statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant,
up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.
I will mention that coming off a pullback,
statistically-significant days are not followed by a reversal as often, but it
would not be a surprise to see some
profit taking.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals turned Bullish. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
-Wednesday, at noon the S&P 500 was up about 2% to 5900.
-VIX fell about 21% to 16.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.433%.
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +12 (12 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +12 is bullish – duh! The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) turned bullish too since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
I’m bullish on the markets.
