ISN Non-Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“… that if the acts before specified should stand, these conclusions would flow from them; that the general government may place any act they think proper on the list of crimes and punish it themselves whether enumerated or not enumerated by the constitution as cognizable by them: that they may transfer its cognizance to the President, or any other person, who may himself be the accuser, counsel, judge and jury, whose suspicions may be the evidence, his order the sentence, his officer the executioner, and his breast the sole record of the transaction…” – Thomas Jefferson writing to accuse the Adams administration of tyranny over the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798.
My cmt: The election of 1800 was marred by name-calling, lies, and acrimony that rival today’s Trump/Harris campaigns.

 
THE HEMLOCK ELECTION (WSJ)
“Overheard waiting to vote in 1992 for either Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush on Manhattan’s Upper West Side: “Looks like you just have to hold your nose and vote.” To me, Tuesday’s election is worse: rock meets hard place, a Sophie’s choice, pomposity versus progressive purgatory, unrest versus economic decline. Pick your poison. Let’s call this the Hemlock Election...
...[During the campaign] Both candidates made mistakes. Mr. Trump agreed to a June debate with Mr. Biden, leaving time after Mr. Biden’s disastrous performance to swap him out for someone with a chance to win. Ms. Harris picked Minnesota’s Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro, leaving Pennsylvania’s crucial electoral votes up for grabs. Second-guessing will begin as soon as a winner is declared—hopefully before New Year’s Day. Meanwhile, we have checks and balances. So go ahead, hold your nose, pick your poison—our republic will survive. And then vote early, but please (especially in Chicago) not too often.” – Andy Kessler, Opinion Columnist, WSJ. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-hemlock-election-trump-harris-pick-your-poison-policy-progressive-or-unrest-ac3c4e52
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM via prnewswire)
"In September, the Services PMI^® registered 54.9 percent, 3.4 percentage points higher than August's figure of 51.5 percent. The reading in September marked the seventh time the composite index has been in expansion territory this year.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-54-9-september-2024-services-ism-report-on-business-302266144.html
The number was better than forecasts. 
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 5783.
-VIX dropped about 7% to 20.49.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.279%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to -3 (3 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -3 is neutral to mildly bearish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remained bearish since it is still moving lower. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
The good news is that indicators made a big improvement and that’s a bullish sign. As I noted yesterday, the S&P 500 tends to bottom when the Daily indicator spread bottoms so it is likely that the mild pullback is over; however, there were signs that tomorrow might be a down day.
 
Tuesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. 
 
I will mention that coming off a pullback, statistically-significant days are not followed by a reversal as often.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.