PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” - Thomas Sowell
 
TRUMP PICKS GAETZ AS ATTORNEY GENERAL (NBC News)
“President-elect Donald Trump stunned Senate Republicans by announcing Wednesday that he will nominate Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., to be attorney general. Gaetz, a Trump loyalist known for being a rabble-rouser in Congress, will need a majority of the Senate to be confirmed as the country’s top law enforcement officer. Republicans will have a majority of 52 or 53 seats beginning Jan. 3, depending on the outcome of the Pennsylvania Senate race.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-baffles-republican-senators-picking-matt-gaetz-attorney-general-rcna180048
My cmt: It seems unlikely that he will be confirmed by the Senate. No wonder Trump is demanding recess appointments for his cabinet.
 
TRUMP CHOOSES RFK Jr. FOR HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CNBC)
“Shares of vaccine makers fell Thursday as President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services... Health policy experts have said a second Trump term could allow Kennedy to elevate anti-vaccine rhetoric, which could deter more Americans from receiving Covid shots and routine immunizations that have for decades saved millions of lives and prevented debilitating illnesses.” Story at... 
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/vaccine-maker-stocks-fall-as-trump-chooses-rfk-jr-to-lead-hhs.html
My cmt: Some of his misleading statements in interviews:
-        "There's no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective."
-        "I do believe that autism comes from vaccines."
-        "Vaccines are exempt from placebo-controlled trials."
 
PPI (UPI)
“Wholesale Producer Price Index inflation rose 0.2% in October and is up 2.4% annually, according to a Thursday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The PPI numbers matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast.” Story at...
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2024/11/14/PPI-inflation-October-BLS/8251731602265/
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in six months last week as layoffs remain at relatively healthy levels. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claim applications fell by 4,000 to 217,000 for the week of Nov. 9.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-american-filing-jobless-claims-133857725.html
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 429.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 5949.
-VIX rose about 0.5% to 14.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.447%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +7 is a bullish indication.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
Actually, Wednesday, not Tuesay, there was High, unchanged-volume. A possible reversal sign, but often wrong.
 
The daily 50-indicator spread improved, but I watch the 10-dMA more carefully since it is a smoothed version of the data. So far, the 10-day data looks good. The S&P 500 has fallen three days in a row. Will the Index return to its 50-dMA? I doubt it since it was just there 8-days ago, but it’s always possible.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials.  It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.