“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
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More off-topic rambling…“Nothing Left: Confessions of a Democratic Operative,” published next week…Ms. Barker’s memoir seeks to explain how and why a large segment of the Democratic Party, emotionally undone by the improbable two-time triumph of a helter-skelter populist celebrity, sought solace in socialism and various racialist and radical ideologies…
…The value in Ms. Barker’s memoir—other than the laughs—lies in its depiction of her party’s biggest and least acknowledged problem: its guilt-ridden donors and the web of cash-flush activist groups, anticapitalist nonprofits and issue-oriented super PACs they sustain. Her book abounds with busybody advocacy groups, donor advisory networks and consultancies run by know-nothing 20-somethings.
One donor Ms. Barker solicits [has a phone voicemail that] announces: “If you are not a woman of color, please do not bother leaving a voicemail. I won’t donate to you.” Still another, an heiress to an oil fortune, lavishes money on left-wing groups, Ms. Barker reasonably surmises, “to try to right her family’s wrongs.”
Nothing like the ecosystem created by these plutocratic ideologues exists on the right, which has its own pathologies. That the left’s multibillion-dollar matrix tends to generate crackpot candidates in the grip of conspiracy theories hardly surprises.” – Barton Swain, Opinion Columnist, Unruly Republic, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donors-make-democrats-crazy-1ce06605?mod=author_content_page_1_pos_1
My cmt: Regular readers know that I blame the Democrats for the second Trump Presidency. A reasonably moderate Democrat ticket in 2024 would have easily defeated Trump. But it gets worse: Howard Schultz, former CEO of Starbucks, considered running for President as early as 2012, but the Democrats didn’t want him because he was too moderate. Too bad – he could have beaten Trump in 2016. He has charisma; Hillary didn’t. Had Schultz run in 2016, Trump would be just another failed politician instead of a two-time President.
“Life at the Bottom,” a 2001 collection of essays by Theodore Dalrymple, the pen name of Anthony Daniels, who worked as a psychiatrist and physician in a British slum and nearby prison. Anyone familiar with the antisocial behavior that characterizes so many black ghettos in the U.S.—the drug use, promiscuity, domestic abuse, violent crime, aversion to education—will recognize the world Dr. Dalrymple chronicles. The difference is that he’s describing the U.K.’s white underclass…
…The book’s essays “demonstrated that the social problems of America were not primarily racial in origin—in the sense that the black population was disproportionately disposed to them because of either inherent defect or the historical injustice they had undoubtedly suffered—but because of the culture and mores that a proportion of that population now espoused,” Dr. Dalrymple writes in a preface to a new edition of his book. “What I observed in England was a breakdown similar to that in these poor, black neighborhoods in America, but the population was white rather than black and therefore race had nothing to do with it.” – Jason L. Riley, Opinion Columnist, Upward Mobility, The Wall Street Journal. (Mr. Riley is a minority.) Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-british-psychiatrist-debunks-an-american-racial-myth-df57a7b2
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“At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, President Trump ordered the Department of Energy (DOE) to capitalize on low oil prices and shore up the SPR [Strategic Oil Reserve] with 77 million barrels. At that time, the price of oil was trading between $20 and $30 a barrel, which makes the proposed $3 billion purchase a steal compared with today’s prices in the $90-$100 range. In hindsight, this decision looks like a no-brainer. But not all lawmakers — particularly Democrats — saw it that way. For instance, Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was openly opposed to the $3 billion purchase, calling it a “bailout for big oil,” according to CNBC.” Story at…
Democrats killed Trump's $3B plan to fill the oil reserve at $20 a barrel in 2020 — now it's at its lowest since 1983
My cmt: Have I ever said that all politicians are weasels?
“New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up three of the last four months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $334.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 4.0 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Computers and electronic products, up nine of the last ten months, led the increase, $0.9 billion or 3.1 percent to $31.1 billion.” Report at…
https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
My cmt: Durable Goods orders were up, but less than expected.
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about a point to 7413.
-VIX rose about 0.5% to 18.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.647% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -13 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range, often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.
I am bearish and will remain so until the S&P 500 climbs above its 50-day or indicators improve. Both the chart and indicators remain concerning.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I updated the Momentum Chart: Google has been added; Verizon deleted.
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
