Wednesday, July 29, 2026

FED Results … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
DEMOCRATS DISMISS CONSTITUTIONAL TRADITIONS AS NOSTALGIA (The The Hill/Jonathan Turley blog)
“After Yuri Bezmenov, a KGB agent working in the media, defected in 1970, he revealed the four stages by which the Soviets hoped to bring about revolutionary change in the U.S. It began with undermining our institutions and values, with the help of journalists and academics…
…In a New York Times op-ed — “The Constitution Is Broken and Should Not Be Reclaimed” — law professors Ryan Doerfler of Harvard and Samuel Moyn of Yale called for the nation to “reclaim America from constitutionalism.”
In yet another New York Times editorial, Jennifer Szalai denounced  “Constitution worship” and claimed that “Americans have long assumed that the Constitution could save us. A growing chorus now wonders whether we need to be saved from it.”
Berkeley Dean Erwin Chemerinsky insists that it is time to trash the Constitution in favor of “radical changes.”
These voices are seeking to remove all of the moderating elements of our system —the safety features that have produced the world’s most successful and stable republic. They are the very constitutional elements protecting us from the tyranny of the majority, protecting us from ourselves.
Without those protections, we will unleash the self-destructive forces that have been tearing apart other democratic systems since Athens…history has shown that such radical proposals ultimately produce not democracy, but what the Framers called mobocracy. If we let that happen, many Americans will indeed look back at the last 250 years with a tragic sense of nostalgia.” - Jonathan Turley, law professor and the New York Times bestselling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.“ Commentary at…
https://jonathanturley.org/2026/07/20/democrats-dismiss-our-constitutional-traditions-as-nostalgia/#more-247218
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
FOMC MEETING (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve released its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, opting to keep rates at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Though markets largely expected the Federal Open Market Committee to stay on hold, recent talk from several officials indicate there’s a sizable constituency to at least consider a hike.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7429.
-VIX declined about 2% to 18.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.606% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
 
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
 
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
I asked Google AI why the stock market dropped today at 3 pm. Here’s the answer via Yahoo Finance:
“The stock market extended its losses into the late afternoon on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, a "hawkish hold" that featured three dissenting votes favoring a rate hike, alongside ongoing remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Selling pressure was also amplified by surging oil prices following renewed Middle East tensions and a deepening sell-off in AI chip stocks.”
 
There was only about a 33% chance of a rate hike today so the Fed decision was in line with expectations. It doesn’t seem likely that the FED was the primary driver of today’s declines. The issue may have been the “surprise” that 3 voting members voted to raise interest rate. That’s a surprise?
 
We did see that XLE, the Energy Select Sector ETF, was a big winner today, up nearly 2%. In the Dow 30, CXV (Chevron) was up over 2%. It would appear that oil prices (up 7%) were the bigger factor.
 
One question we always ask, “Is the bull market over?” Sir John Templeton, one of the world’s most successful mutual-fund managers, gives us a clue. He famously said, “Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”  
I don’t think the current market action is demonstrating euphoria. Breadth was also reasonably good at the all-time high in June so I think higher highs are ahead. However, it is hard to tell if the current market weakness is done, but there were some bullish signs.
 
-Bollinger Bands were oversold today and RSI was within a whisker of oversold. These signals suggest a bottom was formed today.
-Wednesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Today could be a bottom, especially since Bollinger Bands and RSI were oversold.
 
The S&P 500 came within about 1/2% of the 10 June prior low of 7267. In that regard, Wednesday might be considered a test of that low. If it was, the Index failed the test - volume was higher and internals deteriorated. This suggests that the Index did not make a bottom.
 
We’re left with mixed signals; however, I think it does suggest the market is trying to make a bottom and it would not be a surprise to see the S&P 500 re-test the 7267 area.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish, but more hopeful now that a bottom is closer than many suspect.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         
My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.