Payroll Report ... Unemployment Rate ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.
 
HOUSE DEMOCRAT PROPOSES REVERSING SUPREME COURT IMMUNITY DECISION (WHDH-Boston)
“Rep. Joseph Morelle of New York, the top Democrat on the House Administration Committee, sent a letter to colleagues informing them of his intent to file the resolution, which would kickstart [a constitutional amendment to] ‘...do what SCOTUS failed to do — prioritize our democracy,’ Morelle said in a statement to AP.
‘This amendment will guarantee that no public officer of the United States — including the president — is able to evade the accountability that any other American would face for violating our laws,’... Another Democrat, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, said Monday she planned to file articles of impeachment against the justices over the ruling, which she said represents ‘an assault on American democracy.’” Story at...
https://whdh.com/news/house-democrat-is-proposing-a-constitutional-amendment-to-reverse-supreme-courts-immunity-decision/
My cmt: It is hard to imagine the havoc that would be caused if the President doesn’t have immunity for official acts in today’s divisive, politically charged environment. Does anyone think that right-wingers wouldn’t file charges against Joe Biden for Criminal Negligence in his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal or the border, the deficit, Covid or whatever? The Trump Immunity ruling is more about the Presidency than Trump. Without immunity, no President would be safe from Politically motivated lawfare.
 
CONSPIRACY TO PROTECT JOE (New York Magazine)
“The president’s mental decline was like a dark family secret for many elite supporters.
“...Up close, the president does not look quite plausible. It’s not that he’s old. We all know what old looks like. Bernie Sanders is old. Mitch McConnell is old. Most of the ruling class is old. The president was something stranger, something not of this earth...
...My heart stopped as I extended my hand to greet the president. I tried to make eye contact, but it was like his eyes, though open, were not on. His face had a waxy quality. He smiled. It was a sweet smile. It made me sad in a way I can’t fully convey...
...Exiting the room after the photo, the group of reporters — not instigated by me, I should note — made guesses about how dead he appeared to be, percentage wise. “Forty percent?” one of them asked.” Commentary at...
The Conspiracy of Silence to Protect Joe Biden (nymag.com)
My cmt: The main-stream press has turned on Biden. Now we hear that Senator Mark Warner, D., Virginia, is working behind the scenes telling democratic senators that Biden must step down. My guess is that Biden will resign even though he says no. We’ll see...
 
“Abigail Disney, the granddaughter of Walt Disney Company cofounder Roy O. Disney, said on Thursday that she won't be contributing donations to the Democratic Party until Joe Biden drops out of the 2024 presidential race. Disney is the latest in a growing list of powerful Hollywood Democratic party donors who are withholding contributions in a bid to get Biden to step aside for fear that he'll lose the race against Donald Trump.” Story at...
Disney Heiress Abigail Disney Halts Democratic Party Donations Until Joe Biden Drops Out of Presidential Race (msn.com)
 
THE IRS HAS A HIGH-EARNER DELUSION (WSJ)
“A new report [by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration] says increased targeting of ... [earners making more than $10 million per year] ... was hugely ineffective... The best audit guidelines focus on signs of noncompliance. The smart strategy is to minimize the number of law-abiding taxpayers the IRS bothers, and choose those to scrutinize based on irregularities that tend to coincide with underpayment. High earners with bigger tax bills make easier political targets, but it’s a wasteful mistake to audit them merely because they exist.” Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-audits-wealthiest-americans-tigta-report-steven-mnuchin-janet-yellen-4d3f678c?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (NBC News)
“The June jobs report, released Friday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed somewhat hotter hiring than the 200,000 nonfarm job gains economists had expected. That marked a slowdown since May, whose level was revised down to 218,000 from 272,000. April's job gains were also revised sharply lower, showing 111,000 fewer roles added during those prior two months than earlier thought... for the first time since November 2021, the unemployment rate ticked above 4%, hitting 4.1% in June.” Story at... 
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/june-2024-jobs-report-labor-market-hiring-unemployment-rcna160175
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5567, a new, all-time high.
-VIX rose about 3% to 12.48. (Options folks seem to be getting a bit worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.277% (compared to this time yesterday).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) was 7 Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below is climbing, a bullish sign.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:

I’ve re-drawn the channel lines to frame a Rising Wedge with red, dashed-lines.
“The rising (ascending) wedge pattern is a bearish chart pattern that signals an imminent breakout to the downside. It’s the opposite of the falling (descending) wedge pattern (bullish), as these two constitute a popular wedge pattern. A rising wedge can be both a continuation and reversal pattern, although the former is more common and more efficient as it follows the direction of an overall trend." From... 
https://www.thinkmarkets.com/en/learn-to-trade/indicators-and-patterns/bearish-patterns/rising-wedge-pattern/#:~:text=The%20rising%20(ascending)%20wedge%20pattern,constitute%20a%20popular%20wedge%20pattern.
The Index may just impressively breakout above the red-line.  That would reduce fears from the rising wedge pattern. In the meantime, indicators are still looking good.
 
The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today while the number of issues making new, 52-week-highs on the NYSE improved and remained above my bearish threshold.  There are still worries there (as previously noted), but if this improvement continues it would cancel, or at least postpone, this worrisome indicator.
 
The S&P 500 is 13.9% above the 200-dMA and that remains stretched. The bear sign is greater than 12%.
 
Repeating: Statistical analysis of daily moves is indicating that the daily moves have gotten too predictably small, a sign of complacency. This suggests a top within the next 20-days. The last time we saw this indicator was at the 31 July top last year. That was followed by a 10% correction, but overall indicators still look ok.
 
Breadth measured on differed time-frames remains Bullish. The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread improved from +7 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change: I am Neutral on the market. If the Rising Wedge pattern on the S&P 500 is to be believed, and if it doesn’t breakout higher, the pattern would resolve around the end of the month. That would signal the start of a pullback.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is normal invested position. (75% is my max stock allocation so I have some cash now.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Thomas Jefferson’s Last Letter, on the Occasion of the 50th Anniversary of the Revolution

 
In 1826, Thomas Jefferson was invited by the mayor of Washington, D.C., to celebrate the 50th anniversary of American independence. Although Jefferson’s failing health prevented him from attending, the author of the Declaration replied with his last letter—he died just weeks later on July 4—offering a beautiful reflection on America’s founding and a message of hope for the nation’s future.

Short film at...
https://freedom.hillsdale.edu
 

MONTICELLO, June 24, 1826.

Respected Sir —The kind invitation I received from you on the part of the citizens of the city of Washington, to be present with them at their celebration of the Fiftieth Anniversary of American Independence, as one of the surviving signers of an instrument pregnant with our own, and the fate of the world, is most flattering to myself, and heightened by the honorable accompaniment proposed for the comfort of such a journey. It adds sensibly to the sufferings of sickness, to be deprived by it of a personal participation in the rejoicings of that day, but acquiescence is a duty, under circumstances not placed among those we are permitted to control. I should, indeed, with peculiar delight, have met and exchanged there congratulations personally, with the small band, the remnant of that host of worthies, who joined with us, on that day, in the bold and doubtful election we were to make for our country, between submission and the sword; and to have enjoyed with them the consolatory fact that our fellow citizens, after half a century of experience and prosperity, continue to approve the choice we made. May it be to the world, what I believe it will be, (to some parts sooner, to others later, but finally to all,) the signal of arousing men to burst the chains under which monkish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves, and to assume the blessings and security of self-government. The form which we have substituted restores the free right to the unbounded exercise of reason, and freedom of opinion. All eyes are opened or opening, to the rights of man. The general spread of the lights of science has already laid open to every view the palpable truth that the mass of mankind has not been born with saddles on their backs, nor a favored few booted and spurred, ready to ride them legitimately, by the grace of God. These are grounds of hope for others—for ourselves let the annual return of this day forever refresh our recollections of these rights, and an undiminished devotion to them.

I will ask permission here to express the pleasure with which I should have met my ancient neighbors of the city of Washington and its vicinities, with whom I passed so many years of a pleasing social intercourse; an intercourse which so much relieved the anxieties of the public cares, and left impressions so deeply engraved in my affections, as never to be forgotten. With my regret that ill health forbids me the gratification of an acceptance, be pleased to receive for yourself, and those for whom you write, the assurance of my highest respect and friendly attachment.

TH: JEFFERSON.

FED Minutes ... ADP Employment ... Jobless Claims ... ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Durable Goods ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
Markets closed early (1pm) today so traders could get to the Hamptons for the Fourth of July Holiday. Markets are closed Thursday for the Fourth, so no blog tomorrow. HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY!
 
The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq closed at 1 p.m. today in advance of the Fourth of July.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Elizabeth Lynne Cheney is guilty of treason...Retruth if you want televised military tribunals.” – Donald Trump...
[in response]...“Donald - This is the type of thing that demonstrates yet again that you are not a stable adult—and are not fit for office.” – Liz Cheney, former Representative and Co-chair of the Jan 6^th Committee.
 
SUPREME COURT REDUCES REGULATORY POWER (WSJ)
“In abandoning the doctrine called Chevron deference, the justices have given parties unhappy with agency decisions—typically businesses and property owners—more opportunities to overturn regulations by persuading federal judges that officials exceeded their authority. “Agencies have no special competence in resolving statutory ambiguities. Courts do,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the court, joined by Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett... 

...Justice Elena Kagan, in dissent, argued that the majority had damaged the public interest by diminishing the role of expert agencies and reduced the democratic accountability of policy decisions by shifting authority from executive branch officials working for the president to the unelected judiciary.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/supreme-court-pares-back-federal-regulatory-power-954a101c
My cmt: Justice Kagan has it backwards.  It’s bureaucrats who make the regulations who are unelected.
 
“The Supreme Court’s previous deference rule allowed each new presidential administration to advance their political agendas through flip-flopping regulations and not provide consistent rules of the road for businesses to navigate, plan and invest in the future.” - Suzanne Clark, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
 
FED MINUTES (CNBC)
“Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting indicated that inflation is moving in the right direction but not quickly enough for them to lower interest rates, minutes released Wednesday showed.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/03/fed-minutes-fomc-not-ready-to-cut-rates-until-greater-confidence-inflation-is-moving-to-2percent-goal.html
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via prnewswire)

“Private sector employment increased by 150,000 jobs in June and annual pay was up 4.9 percent year-over-year, according to the June ADP® National Employment Report™... "Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.’" Press release at...

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-150-000-jobs-in-june-annual-pay-was-up-4-9-302188876.html

“Private sector employment increased by 150,000 jobs in June and annual pay was up 4.9 percent year-over-year, according to the June ADP® National Employment Report™... "Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.’" Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-150-000-jobs-in-june-annual-pay-was-up-4-9-302188876.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The Labor Department reported Wednesday that jobless claims for the week ending June 29 rose by 4,000 to 238,000 from 234,000 the previous week. The data was issued one day earlier than its regular Thursday release due to the July Fourth holiday... Economists say that while the number of new people applying for jobless aid each week remains relatively modest...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-filings-jobless-claims-inch-modestly-continuing-claims-111639557
 
ISM NON-MANAUFACTURING (ISM via prnewswire)
"In June, the Services PMI^® registered 48.8 percent, 5 percentage points lower than May's figure of 53.8 percent. The reading in June was a reversal compared to May and the second in contraction territory in the last three months... "The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020 and continued contraction in employment. Survey respondents report that in general, business is flat or lower, and although inflation is easing, some commodities have significantly higher costs. Panelists indicate that slower supplier delivery performance is due primarily to transportation challenges, not increases in demand." - Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee. Press release at... 
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-48-8-june-2024-services-ism-report-on-business-302188467.html
 
DURABLE GOODS / FACTORY ORDERS (Advisor Prespectives)
“New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $283.08B in May. This is a 0.1% increase from the previous month and more than the expected -0.5% decline. The series is down 1.5% year-over-year (YoY)...” Story at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/27/durable-goods-orders-may-2024
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 12.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 448.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
The report suggests strong demand.
 
FYI.

Chart from...
https://www.eia.gov/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5537, a new, all-time high.
-VIX rose about 0.5% to 12.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.354% (compared to this time yesterday).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
  
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) was 8 Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below turned up, a bullish sign, although it has bounced back and forth so much that it is hard to get too confident.
 
We’re still waiting to see if the Index can break above the red trend line in the chart below.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
I sold my DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index position (includes small caps) and replaced half of it with an S&P 500 fund (SPY). That focuses my portfolio on larger stocks while reducing overall exposure to stocks back to my base, balanced, retiree position of 50% invested. To be clear, I am still fully invested and I do not yet have a sell-signal.  This just insures that I am reasonably invested now, when indicators are starting to warn of a pullback. Will we have a turn-down?  Yes, but it is not clear that it will occur soon. But since I have had some warning signs, I am reducing risk. As a retiree, the key is to minimize losses. I have no way to make up losses since I no longer have a working income. Younger folks can be much more agressive.
 
I’ll wait for a better position to re-deploy by cash.
 
In the meantime, there were some improvements in indicators today.
 
The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today while the number of issues making new, 52-week-highs on the NYSE improved and crept above my bearish threshold.  Before we get too, caried away, it is important to note that of the eight new, S&P 500 highs over the last 3-weeks, new-52-week-highs have been very low on five of them. While this signal has improved, others have not.  
 
The S&P 500 is 13.4% above the 200-dMA and that remains stretched. The bear sign is greater than 12%.
 
Statistical analysis of daily moves is indicating that the daily moves have gotten too predictably small, a sign of complacency. This suggests a top within the next 20-days. The last time we saw this indicator was at the 31 July top last year. That was followed by a 10% correction, but overall indicators still look ok.
 
Breadth measured on differed time-frames remains Bullish. The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread remained +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change: I am Neutral on the market, however, I have sold stocks to reach a balanced position of 50% invested in stocks.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is normal invested position. (75% is my max stock allocation so I have some cash now.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Trump Immune? ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
BIDEN COMMENTS ON SUPREME COURT IMMUNITY DECISION
“There are no kings in America. Each, each of us is equal before the law. No one, no one is above the law, not even the president of the United States, today’s Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity, that fundamentally changed. For all practical purposes, there are virtually no limits on what the president can do. It’s a fundamentally new principle and it’s a dangerous precedent because the power of the office will no longer be constrained by the law even including the supreme court of the United States... any president – including Donald Trump – will now be free to ignore the law... I concur with Justice Sotomayor’s dissent today. Here’s what she said – she said, ‘In every use of official power, the president is now a king above the law. With fear for our democracy, I dissent,’ end of quote. So should the American people dissent. I dissent.” - President Biden.
 
SOTOMAYOR DISSENTS
"The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority's reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution... Orders the Navy's Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune." – Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor in her dissenting opinion on Trump’s immunity case.
 
MY CMT: As I noted yesterday, Justice Roberts responded that the dissenters "...strike a tone of chilling doom that is wholly disproportionate to what the Court actually does today [ruling a President has immunity for official acts]...like everyone else, the President is subject to prosecution in his unofficial capacity." During the Nixon administration the Supreme Court ruled that the President cannot be sued in civil court for official acts. This ruling is a very logical extension of that prior decision.
 
Does Sotomayor (Yale Law school) actually believe that courts in the US, including the Supreme Court, would rule that murdering political rivals is an “official act?” This sort of hyperbolic crap by sitting Justices and the President of the United States show that they lack reason...
rea·son  /ˈrēz(ə)n/  noun
“the power of the mind to think, understand, and form judgments by a process of logic.”
...or the Court’s liberal wing (Sotomayor, Kagan & Jackson) is pandering to the Democrats. Your choice...
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5509, a new, all-time high.
-VIX declined about 2% to 12.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.436% (compared to this time yesterday).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) was 9 Bear-signs and 16-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below turned up, a bullish sign, although it has bounced back and forth so much that it is hard to get too confident.
 
We’re still waiting to see if the Index can break above the red trend line in the chart below.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today and, once again, the number of issues on the NYSE was low. This demonstrates a very narrow advance that is unhealthy.  In the past, this indication has preceded corrections of at least 10%. In addition, statistical analysis of daily moves is indicating that the daily moves have gotten too predictably small, a sign of complacency. This suggests a top within the next 20-days. The last time we saw this indicator was at the 31 July top last year. That was followed by a 10% correction, but overall indicators still look ok. The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread improved from +6 to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
The number issues advancing on the NYSE over different time periods is not yet confirming a correction is imminent.  The shortest time frame I look at is the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE and it was above 50%, indicating that more than half of all issues on the NYSE have advanced over the last 2-weeks. That short-term indicator is the first of the breadth snapshots that will warn of possible trouble sooner rather than later. Currently, >50% is bullish.
 
Tuesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.  Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term top, but there are only 3 top indicators that are bearish and that is not a strong top signal.
 
The S&P 500 is 13% above the 200-dMA and that remains stretched. The bear sign is greater than 12%.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change: I am Neutral on the market, but I may trade or trim my position in DWCPF.  Smaller stocks have not worked as well as larger “safe” companies over the last several months.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. (I’ll need to recalculate this.) I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position. 75% is my max stock allocation so I have some cash now.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Trump Immunity ... Biden Problem ... ISM PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“To be clear, we never have and never will endorse Biden.” - National Border Patrol Union
My cmt: But Biden said they did during the debate; man, is that guy confused!
 
“Thank the Supreme Court for granting Joe Biden godlike official powers. I think his first step should be to declare all Trump golf courses as protected Federal wildlife preserves and seize them by eminent domain...it’s an official act, so it’s cool, right?” – Rick Wilson, co-founder of the Lincoln Project.
 
THE BIDEN PROBLEM (WSJ)
“...One inevitable question is why those closest to Mr. Biden let him run again. We and many others warned them. It was clearly a selfish act for him to seek a second term. But did they really think they could hide his decline from the public for an entire election campaign? It’s hard to believe they wanted this early debate as a way to change the campaign in their favor.
The debate instead has exposed him and their long cover-up of the truth. If they believe that Mr. Trump is the threat to democracy they claim, they did a disservice to the country by nominating Mr. Biden again. They owe an apology to Dean Phillips, the sole Democrat willing to challenge the President.
All of this presents Democrats with an excruciating choice. Mr. Biden has the delegates to win the nomination, and the only way he won’t be the nominee is if he decides to withdraw.” – WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-donald-trump-debate-cnn-2024-democratic-party-gop-749d776a?mod=opinion_lead_pos2
 
THE DEBATE THAT CHANGED EVERYTHING (The Hill)
“Never before has a debate transformed a presidential race so utterly. The idea of replacing President Biden as his party’s 2024 nominee has become Topic A in national politics; former President Trump has advanced from a slight to heavy favorite in November’s election; and the collective blood pressure of the Democratic Party has gone through the roof... New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman penned a piece noting his long friendship with the president but calling on him to exit the race. Former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo) told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow there were “glaring weaknesses in our president.” Also on MSNBC, Joe Scarborough predicted a Trump victory in November ‘unless there’s a change.’” Story at...
The Memo: The debate that changed everything (msn.com)
 
“I sat there and watched it and I could not believe it. I said, not only is this a political hydrogen bomb for him and the Democratic Party, it, you know — what happened? What happened?... Look, let’s step back. If a building blows up in downtown of some city, the story will be what happened and then the story will be how did this happen, why did this happen? And that’s where I’m very, very curious because this was a mega disaster.” – Bob Woodward, Associate Editor, Washington Post.
 
VOTERS WANT BIDEN REPLACED (Deseret News)
“A CBS/YouGov poll conducted over the weekend found that nearly three-fourths of U.S. registered voters — 72% — think Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, up from 65% when the same question was asked in early June. Only 27% of voters think he does have the requisite health, down from 35%... On Friday, the New York Times editorial board agreed. “Mr. Biden has been an admirable president,” the Times’ editorial read. “But the greatest public service Mr. Biden can now perform is to announce that he will not continue to run for re-election.” Story at...
After messy debate, voters want Biden replaced on Dem ticket (msn.com)
 

COURT RULES TRUMP HAS ABSOLUTE IMMUNITY FOR OFFICIAL ACTS (The Guardian)
“The US supreme court has ruled that former presidents are entitled to some degree of immunity from criminal prosecution, a major victory for Donald Trump that guts the 2020 election subversion case against him and any prospect of a trial before November... Trump is accused of overseeing a sprawling effort to subvert the 2020 election... Among the accusations: Trump spread false claims of election fraud, plotted to recruit fake slates of electors, pressured US justice department officials to open sham investigations into election fraud, and pressured his vice-president, Mike Pence, to obstruct Congress’s certification of Joe Biden’s win.
To determine whether Trump’s alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election results were official acts, the supreme court remanded the case back to the presiding US district judge Tanya Chutkan, who will have to review the indictment line by line.” Story at...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/jul/01/supreme-court-decision-trump-immunity-ruling
My cmt:
In her dissent, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote, "Departing from the traditional model of individual accountability, the majority has concocted something entirely different: a Presidential accountability model that creates immunity—an exemption from criminal law — applicable only to the most powerful official in our Government."
Justice Roberts responded that the dissenters "strike a tone of chilling doom that is wholly disproportionate to what the Court actually does today...like everyone else, the President is subject to prosecution in his unofficial capacity."
 
Justice Jackson’s dissent and other reactions seem over-the-top to me. Ms. Riguer, below, seems to have the right perspective:
“...the Supreme Court’s punt to lower courts on the question of which actions are in a president’s official capacity leaves some potential for the absolute power of the presidency to be checked. ‘I know the Trump people are crowing about this and saying yes, yes, we won, we won, this is a victory,’ she said. ‘It’s actually not a victory. It’s a pass-off.’”- Leah Wright Rigueur, professor of history at the SNF Agora Institute, Johns Hopkins University.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/live/supreme-court-trump-presidential-immunity-updates
The reason it is a pass-off is that lower courts “categorically rejected any form of Presidential immunity.” Clearly, that’s not correct. Importantly, Justice Roberts wrote: “Trump asserts a far broader immunity than the limited one we have recognized."
 
The only reason this is a victory for Trump is that it will make it practically impossible to resolve the case before the election.
 
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.5 percent in June, down 0.2 percentage point from the 48.7 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 50th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) ...[but]... “U.S. manufacturing activity continued in contraction at the close of the second quarter. Demand was weak again, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative.” Press release at... 
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/june/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 5475.
-VIX declined about 2% to 12.18.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.470% (compared to this time yesterday).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) was 8 Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below turned up, a bullish sign, although it has bounced back and forth so much that it is hard to get too confident.
 
We’re still waiting to see if the Index can break above the red trend line in the chart below.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Market internals were weak again. Twice as many issues were declining on the NYSE compared to those advancing; declining-volume was nearly twice advancing-volume; new 52-week highs did outpace new-lows, but not by much. This continues the back-and-forth flip-flopping of basic internals while the S&P 500 has gone nowhere in the last 2-weeks. This trend is not giving me much confidence in the markets. The 50-Indicator spread wasn’t bad, but it didn’t give a big boost of confidence either.  
 
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread declined from +9 to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
There was a new Bear sign today, one that doesn’t occur too often. A statistical analysis of daily moves is indicating that the daily moves have gotten too predictably small, a sign of complacency. This suggests a top within the next 20-days. The last time we saw this indicator was at the 31 July top last year. That was followed by a 10% correction.  The weak new-high/new-low data at recent tops has already warned that if a correction occurs, it is likely to be at least a 10% decline. (The low VIX value, now at 12.23, does not contradict this indicator.)
 
The last time the 52-week, new-high/new-low data was as weak at a new, all-time high was at the Jan 2022 top, before a 20% correction. Breadth (measured by % of advancing issues on the NYSE) turned down quickly after that top. At this time, breadth is ok, so it may be too soon to panic.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change: I am Neutral on the market. Perhaps next week we’ll see some signs that will allow me to get more bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. (I’ll need to recalculate this.) I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position. 75% is my max stock allocation so I have some cash now.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.