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“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.
 
HOUSE DEMOCRAT PROPOSES REVERSING SUPREME COURT IMMUNITY DECISION (WHDH-Boston)
“Rep. Joseph Morelle of New York, the top Democrat on the House Administration Committee, sent a letter to colleagues informing them of his intent to file the resolution, which would kickstart [a constitutional amendment to] ‘...do what SCOTUS failed to do — prioritize our democracy,’ Morelle said in a statement to AP.
‘This amendment will guarantee that no public officer of the United States — including the president — is able to evade the accountability that any other American would face for violating our laws,’... Another Democrat, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, said Monday she planned to file articles of impeachment against the justices over the ruling, which she said represents ‘an assault on American democracy.’” Story at...
https://whdh.com/news/house-democrat-is-proposing-a-constitutional-amendment-to-reverse-supreme-courts-immunity-decision/
My cmt: It is hard to imagine the havoc that would be caused if the President doesn’t have immunity for official acts in today’s divisive, politically charged environment. Does anyone think that right-wingers wouldn’t file charges against Joe Biden for Criminal Negligence in his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal or the border, the deficit, Covid or whatever? The Trump Immunity ruling is more about the Presidency than Trump. Without immunity, no President would be safe from Politically motivated lawfare.
 
CONSPIRACY TO PROTECT JOE (New York Magazine)
“The president’s mental decline was like a dark family secret for many elite supporters.
“...Up close, the president does not look quite plausible. It’s not that he’s old. We all know what old looks like. Bernie Sanders is old. Mitch McConnell is old. Most of the ruling class is old. The president was something stranger, something not of this earth...
...My heart stopped as I extended my hand to greet the president. I tried to make eye contact, but it was like his eyes, though open, were not on. His face had a waxy quality. He smiled. It was a sweet smile. It made me sad in a way I can’t fully convey...
...Exiting the room after the photo, the group of reporters — not instigated by me, I should note — made guesses about how dead he appeared to be, percentage wise. “Forty percent?” one of them asked.” Commentary at...
The Conspiracy of Silence to Protect Joe Biden (nymag.com)
My cmt: The main-stream press has turned on Biden. Now we hear that Senator Mark Warner, D., Virginia, is working behind the scenes telling democratic senators that Biden must step down. My guess is that Biden will resign even though he says no. We’ll see...
 
“Abigail Disney, the granddaughter of Walt Disney Company cofounder Roy O. Disney, said on Thursday that she won't be contributing donations to the Democratic Party until Joe Biden drops out of the 2024 presidential race. Disney is the latest in a growing list of powerful Hollywood Democratic party donors who are withholding contributions in a bid to get Biden to step aside for fear that he'll lose the race against Donald Trump.” Story at...
Disney Heiress Abigail Disney Halts Democratic Party Donations Until Joe Biden Drops Out of Presidential Race (msn.com)
 
THE IRS HAS A HIGH-EARNER DELUSION (WSJ)
“A new report [by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration] says increased targeting of ... [earners making more than $10 million per year] ... was hugely ineffective... The best audit guidelines focus on signs of noncompliance. The smart strategy is to minimize the number of law-abiding taxpayers the IRS bothers, and choose those to scrutinize based on irregularities that tend to coincide with underpayment. High earners with bigger tax bills make easier political targets, but it’s a wasteful mistake to audit them merely because they exist.” Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-audits-wealthiest-americans-tigta-report-steven-mnuchin-janet-yellen-4d3f678c?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (NBC News)
“The June jobs report, released Friday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed somewhat hotter hiring than the 200,000 nonfarm job gains economists had expected. That marked a slowdown since May, whose level was revised down to 218,000 from 272,000. April's job gains were also revised sharply lower, showing 111,000 fewer roles added during those prior two months than earlier thought... for the first time since November 2021, the unemployment rate ticked above 4%, hitting 4.1% in June.” Story at... 
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/june-2024-jobs-report-labor-market-hiring-unemployment-rcna160175
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5567, a new, all-time high.
-VIX rose about 3% to 12.48. (Options folks seem to be getting a bit worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.277% (compared to this time yesterday).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) was 7 Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below is climbing, a bullish sign.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:

I’ve re-drawn the channel lines to frame a Rising Wedge with red, dashed-lines.
“The rising (ascending) wedge pattern is a bearish chart pattern that signals an imminent breakout to the downside. It’s the opposite of the falling (descending) wedge pattern (bullish), as these two constitute a popular wedge pattern. A rising wedge can be both a continuation and reversal pattern, although the former is more common and more efficient as it follows the direction of an overall trend." From... 
https://www.thinkmarkets.com/en/learn-to-trade/indicators-and-patterns/bearish-patterns/rising-wedge-pattern/#:~:text=The%20rising%20(ascending)%20wedge%20pattern,constitute%20a%20popular%20wedge%20pattern.
The Index may just impressively breakout above the red-line.  That would reduce fears from the rising wedge pattern. In the meantime, indicators are still looking good.
 
The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today while the number of issues making new, 52-week-highs on the NYSE improved and remained above my bearish threshold.  There are still worries there (as previously noted), but if this improvement continues it would cancel, or at least postpone, this worrisome indicator.
 
The S&P 500 is 13.9% above the 200-dMA and that remains stretched. The bear sign is greater than 12%.
 
Repeating: Statistical analysis of daily moves is indicating that the daily moves have gotten too predictably small, a sign of complacency. This suggests a top within the next 20-days. The last time we saw this indicator was at the 31 July top last year. That was followed by a 10% correction, but overall indicators still look ok.
 
Breadth measured on differed time-frames remains Bullish. The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread improved from +7 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change: I am Neutral on the market. If the Rising Wedge pattern on the S&P 500 is to be believed, and if it doesn’t breakout higher, the pattern would resolve around the end of the month. That would signal the start of a pullback.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is normal invested position. (75% is my max stock allocation so I have some cash now.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.