Jobless Claims … New Home Sales … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)

“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign the labor market was holding firm despite tensions between the United States and its trading partners that have led to tit-for-tat tariffs.” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-unemployment/us-jobless-claims-fall-point-to-labor-market-strength-idUSKCN1L81E6

 

HOME SALES (Bloomberg)

“U.S. purchases of new homes unexpectedly dipped to the weakest pace in nine months as higher prices and mortgage rates sideline demand, adding to signs of a cooling in the housing market, government data showed Thursday.” Story at…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-23/u-s-new-home-sales-fall-to-nine-month-low-while-supply-rises

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Thursday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 2857.

-VIX rose about 1% to 12.41. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.835% as of this post.

 

Short post today…it’s been busy.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped slightly from +8 to +5 (a positive number is bullish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -17 to -7.

 

For the most part, today is slightly bullish as far as indicators go.  There are no strong signals either way. Sentiment has been pulling back to a neutral position.  It is bearish in my system, but only because a bearish sign holds over for a few days.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals slipped to NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Thursday, the Price and VIX indicators were positive; Volume was neutral; Sentiment was bearish. Overall this is still a NEUTRAL indication.

FOMC (FED) Minutes … Crude Inventories … Existing Home Sales … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

FED MINUTES (Reuters)

“U.S. central bankers discussed raising interest rates soon to counter excessive economic strength but also examined how global trade disputes could batter businesses and households, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting showed on Wednesday…PARTICIPANTS GENERALLY EXPECTED FURTHER GRADUAL HIKES…” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-instant/fomc-minutes-more-hikes-coming-soon-trade-a-worry-idUSKCN1L71Z1

 

CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)

“Crude oil prices jumped on Wednesday following the Energy Information Administrations’ latest weekly petroleum status report, with the authority confirming a draw in crude oil inventories of 5.8 million barrels for the week to August 17.” Story at…

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Jump-On-Major-Crude-Draw.html

 

HOME SALES (Builderonline.com)

“Existing-home sales slid for the fourth straight month in July to the slowest pace in more than two years, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. The West was the only region with an increase in sales last month. Total existing-home sales decreased 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.34 million in July from 5.38 million in June.” Story at… 

https://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/existing-home-sales-slide-to-a-2-year-low-in-july_o

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about a point to 2862.

-VIX dropped about 5% to 12.25 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down to 2.816% as of this post.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped slightly from +9 to +8 (a positive number is bullish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -28 to -17.

 

Overall, indicators are getting more bullish.  Today’s blog is a repeat of yesterday. Not much has changed, so just read yesterday’s notes for market analysis.

 

I remain fully invested…at least until we see some more signs of trouble. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained POSITIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Wednesday, the Price indicator was positive; Volume & VIX indicators were neutral; Sentiment was bearish. Overall this is still a NEUTRAL indication.

Hussman Commentary Excerpt … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

HUSSMAN COMMENTARY EXCERPT (Hussman Funds)

“The problem, again, is that market internals are presently suggesting a subtle shift toward risk-aversion among investors. In the face of extreme valuations, investors face enormous downside risks, as they did in 2000 and 2007. The present combination of record valuations and divergent market internals, coming off of the most wicked “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” extremes in history, creates a danger zone that will not be resolved until some combination of those factors – valuations, internals, and overextended conditions – shifts to a less dangerous mix.

As I did in 2000 and 2007, I mean these figures seriously – not as hyperbole, but based on outcomes that would be historically standard, normal, and commonplace given current valuation extremes. At present, we project market losses over the completion of this cycle on the order of -64% for the S&P 500 Index…” – John Hussman, PhD.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180725/

My cmt: I look at a different basket of Market Internals than does John Hussman.  Only time will tell who is right. I also have a shorter-term view than he does, so with my measures headed up, I think I am right in the short term. Longer term (and that could be sooner than we think) I am getting more cautious.

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2863.

-VIX rose about 3% to 12.86 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 2.822% as of this post.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from +4 to +9 (a positive number is bullish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -36 to -28.

 

Overall, indicators are getting more bullish.  Bollinger Bands are no longer exhibiting a squeeze, but they are close to signaling overbought.  RSI is still neutral so these two indicators taken together are neutral.  The biggest negative sign, other than sentiment previously discussed in earlier blogs, is Smart Money.  This indicator is based on late-day-action since that’s when the Pros trade.  Currently, late-day-action is headed down. I think they are too early to get bearish, but it could be just that traders don’t want to hold positions overnight and they are taking profit, i.e., we could be getting a false signal from the Smart money.

 

I remain fully invested…at least until we see some more signs of trouble. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained POSITIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Tuesday, the Price indicator was positive; Volume & VIX indicators were neutral; Sentiment was bearish. Overall this is still a NEUTRAL indication.

Raymond James Commentary Excerpt … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

JEFFREY SAUT COMMENTARY EXCERPT (Raymond James)

“Over the past number of weeks we have tried two times to trade out to new all-time highs. As stated, typically the first few attempts to do so tend to fail. However, on their third attempt new highs typically are achieved. The energy models are all “charged up” as the equity markets enter an upcoming bullish time period. This implies the potential for a strong upside breakout this week. With short-sellers having major stop-loss “buy orders” just above the all-times highs, the stage is set for them to get “blown out” with a sudden rush to new all-time highs. The question then becomes, “Is this an upside breakout, or an upside fake-out?!” We think it will be a breakout as the specialists’ stop-loss “order book” gets cleared out.” – Jeffrey Saut. Full commentary at…

https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Monday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2857.

-VIX dropped about 1% to 12.4.9 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 2.825% as of this post.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -2 to +4 (a positive number is bullish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -37 to -36.

 

Sentiment was a sell Friday and that often gives us some sort of pullback, but not necessarily a big one.  I won’t get updated numbers until later tonight. However, more often than not, Sentiment alone does not indicate a top because sentiment can remain elevated for an extended time or drop without a correction in stock price.  For that reason, we can’t trade sentiment alone. Sentiment sets the stage, but we’d need to see more negative signs before a correction is likely.

 

Bollinger Bands on the S&P 500 index are still exhibiting a “Squeeze” (top and bottom bands are close together) suggesting a breakout (up or down) is coming. As noted Friday, the Index is now much closer to the upper band suggesting that the break is likely to be down.  We need to see confirmation by RSI, but RSI is still solidly neutral (63, 14-day SMA) so no need to panic yet.

 

Money Trend has turned up and that’s bullish. The cyclical industrial stocks (XLI-ETF) are now out performing the S&P 500 in the short run and that’s bullish, too. If investors were worried they would be selling cyclicals.

 

My guess is that the Index will continue up for a while longer before some more alarm bells warn of a correction.  Late summer and early fall are not good times for the stock market. 

 

The S&P 500 is less than 1% below the January 2017 high. The Index could make new highs, but it’s questionable how much farther it can go.  We’ll just keep an eye on the indicators. For the time being though, it appears that investors want to buy stocks.

 

I remain fully invested…at least until we see some more signs of trouble. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals improved to POSITIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Monday, the Price indicator was positive; Volume & VIX indicators were neutral; Sentiment was bearish. Overall this is still a NEUTRAL indication.

Leading economic Indicators (LEI) … Michigan Sentiment … The Next Bear Market … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

LEI (Conference Board)

“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in July to 110.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in June, and a 0.1 percent increase in May. “The U.S. LEI increased in July, suggesting the US economy will continue expanding at a solid pace for the remainder of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The strengths among the components of the leading index were very widespread, with unemployment claims, the financial components, and the ISM® New Orders Index making the largest positive contributions.” – Press release at…

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

 

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Reuters)

“U.S. consumer sentiment fell to an 11-month low in early August, with households expressing concerns about the rising cost of living, potentially signaling a slowdown in consumer spending.” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-confidence/us-consumer-sentiment-hits-11-month-low-inflation-in-focus-idUSKBN1L21N6

 

THE NEXT BEAR MARKET (MarketWatch – 9 Feb 2018)

“’When we have a bear market again, and we are going to have a bear market again, it will be the worst in our lifetime.’ - Jim Rogers. That’s what the chairman of Rogers Holdings Inc. told Bloomberg News on Thursday.” Old story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jim-rogers-says-the-next-bear-market-will-be-the-worst-in-our-lifetime-2018-02-08

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 2850.

-VIX dropped about 6% to 12.64. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.859%.

 

About 20-years ago I used to watch Jimmy Rogers on CNBC arguing the contrarian, bear-side as the stock market ran up to the dot.com bubble top.  Every week Jimmy was on the show talking about the coming crash and saying that people should be short or invest in gold, or out of the market and so on.  One day Sue Herrera asked him how he could stay out of the market during this tremendous run up. He said, “Oh I’m not out of the market. You’d have to be crazy to miss this even if you can’t believe it will last” or words to that affect.  That was the last time Jimmy Rogers was on CNBC arguing the bear side. The irony is that CNBC asked Jimmy Rogers to take the bear side of the argument – he just wasn’t a true bear at the time.

 

I bring this up just to point out why I don’t pay any attention to investor surveys – people will say one thing and do another.  For that reason, the only sentiment indicators I follow need to be based on where investors are putting their money.  I use the Guggenheim/Rydex long short funds to calculate a %-bulls {bulls/(bulls+bears)} based on how much money is bet on the Rydex long/short mutual funds.  It’s a clean number because the closing data is published daily. That’s my sentiment indicator. Because investors will change their attitude based on market conditions Sentiment tends to rise the farther one gets from the last crash.  For that reason, to develop a Sentiment indicator, I use a multiple of std-deviations from a mean of values present during the dot.com bubble.

 

Friday, the Sentiment indicator flashed “sell” because the Sentiment is now higher than it was during the dot.com bubble, at least on a standard deviation basis.

 

The last time we got a sentiment sell-signal was 1 Feb of this year during the 10% drop. However, more often than not, Sentiment alone does not indicate a top because sentiment can remain elevated for an extended time or drop without a correction in stock price.  For that reason, we can’t trade sentiment alone. Sentiment sets the stage, but we’d need to see more negative signs before a correction is likely.

 

Bollinger Bands on the S&P 500 index are again exhibiting a “Squeeze” Friday (top and bottom bands are close together) suggesting a breakout (up or down) is coming. The Index is now much closer to the upper band suggesting that the break is likely to be down.  We need to see confirmation by RSI, but RSI is still solidly neutral so no need to panic yet.

 

My guess is that the Index will continue up for a while longer before some more alarm bells warn of a correction.  Late summer and early fall are not good times for the stock market.  

 

The S&P 500 is less than 1% below the January 2017 high. The Index could make new highs, but it’s questionable how much farther it can go.  We’ll just keep an eye on the indicators.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -3 to -2 (a minus number is bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from -30 to -37.

 

I remain fully invested…at least until we see some more signs of trouble.  

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Friday, the Price indicator was positive; Volume &  VIX indicators were neutral; Sentiment was bearish. Overall this is still a NEUTRAL indication.

Housing Starts … Jobless Claims … Philadelphia Fed … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

HOUSING (MarketWatch)

“For the year to date, starts are running 6.2% higher than the same period in 2017…Construction on new houses increased by less than 1% in July, reflecting a recent slowdown in building that’s likely tied to higher mortgage rates and growing shortages of skilled craftsmen.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-starts-creep-higher-but-construction-slows-vs-a-year-ago-2018-08-16

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)

“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell for a second straight week last week, suggesting no impact yet on the labor market from ongoing trade tensions between the United States and its trading partners. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended Aug. 11…” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-unemployment/us-jobless-claims-fall-for-second-straight-week-idUSKBN1L11FD

 

PHILADELPHIA FED (MarketWatch)

“The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index sank to 11.9 in August from 25.7 in July, the lowest reading in 21 months, the regional district of the central bank said Thursday.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/philly-fed-index-sinks-in-august-to-lowest-reading-in-21-months-2018-08-16

My cmt: A number above zero indicates expansion; it’s just at a much slower rate than last month.

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.8% to 2840.

-VIX dropped about 8% to 13.45. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.868% as of this post.

 

Bollinger Bands are exhibiting a “Squeeze” today (top and bottom bands are close together) suggesting a breakout (up or down) is coming. RSI is neutral and indicators seem generally mixed. We had a squeeze on 3 August and also early June that led nowhere. Before that we had a squeeze in late June of 2017. That too, was inconsequential.

 

The S&P 500 has been trying to break above the January 2017 high and has failed so far. In addition, a series of big up and down moves (like we have seen recently) can indicate a top so I have been mildly concerned this week.

 

Thursday was a statistically-significant, up-day. That just means that the price-volume move up exceeded statistical parameters that I track. The stats show that about 60% of the time a statistically significant move up will be followed by a down-day the next day. As noted, this sort of back and forth action can indicate a top, so today’s big day up is not necessarily good news.

 

Indicators are mixed, so unless we see signs of market deterioration there is no move to make now.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -7 to -3 (a minus number is bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -32 to -30. That’s not much change, but at least the indicators have turned around and are now headed up.  We’ll have to see if the trend continues.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals improved to NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Thursday, the Price indicator was positive; Volume, VIX & Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.