Thursday, December 15, 2011

Europe – the most boring crisis ever…

Michael Platt, the founder of the $30 billion hedge fund, BlueCrest, said on Bloomberg, “…most of the banks in Europe are insolvent and the situation in the region is "completely unstable."  He went on to say that all of his funds are in short–term US and German treasuries.  Wow!  That’s a conservative position that shows he believes that collapse of the banks is coming.  He said the big money to be made in a crisis is late not early and this situation looks worse than 2008. 

The WSJ called last week’s European summit a “failure” in several different articles.  As we noted here, they didn’t address the problem with the sovereign debt and further, some of the agreements they made are already are being watered down in Italy. 

Today, Thursday, the S&P 500 went up 0.3% to 1216.  I was looking for a bigger bounce, but we’ll take what we can get at this point.

The NTSM system responded by moving back to BUY today, but a buy now just means NTSM remains positive on the market. The important buy was on 6 October.

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.