T. Rowe Price – Increased Risk, but no recession forecast

T. Rowe Price, the mutual fund/brokerage company said in a recent letter to investors, “Our base case does not include a recession, but we expect GDP growth to be only a modestly positive 1.7% in Q4 2011 and 2.0% in 2012, somewhat below the current Wall Street consensus for the end of 2011 but in line for 2012.  A "growth recession," in which real GDP growth is positive but unemployment rises, is a possibility.”

The Navigate the Stock Market analysis remains BUY today…a positive indication for the near term, but it doesn’t change the bullish stance that NTMS has maintained since 7 October. (Bullish because I have been fully invested since then.)

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.