MARKET
WRAP
The
S&P 500 ended up about 0.2% today to
1244 on normal, non-Holiday volume.
VIX was down another 8% to 21.43.
That was a really good result given that the S&P 500 was down almost
1% early in the day.
Regarding
the VIX: Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com
said on “Breakout” (Yahoo Finance) that
“…this is the best reading we've ever seen out of the VIX because a week ago it
was screaming from the rooftops that we'd being going down."
Najarian
says “…volatility softness more or less suggests a near-term rally for the
broader market...(but)…It doesn't necessarily mean we have to rally, it just
means the moves will be less exaggerated."
Full story at:
THE
ECB
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) – “The European
Central Bank on Wednesday announced strong demand for a key bank lending
program meant to address the Eurozone debt crisis.
The ECB allotted €489.19 billion
($643.18 billion) in the first batch of its 3-year loan program -- more than
investors expected. The loans will go to 523 banks in the eurozone to support
bank lending and liquidity, the central bank said.” – Full story at http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/21/markets/world_markets_ecb/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
I
usually try to avoid guessing why the market goes up or down on any given
day. Every financial newscast reports
the reason for the day’s market action.
They are almost always wrong.
Take yesterday; even I got caught up in the hype and I listed as one of
the reasons for yesterday’s big move up as “improved housing data.” In fact, the futures market was way up Monday
night, before Tuesday’s open, and the housing data wasn’t released until 8AM
Tuesday morning. . The housing data was only good news for
Apartment construction, but little-changed for single-family housing.
It
would appear that the real reason for yesterday’s move was the European Central
Bank action described above. Remember;
Europe’s issues are less about the individual countries than it is about the
money the countries owe the Banks – it’s all about the banks (except for
perhaps a coming recession in Europe which is a whole different kettle of soup).
Now
here is a related comment that applies to the US and Europe. I don’t endorse the opinion – I merely
provide it for your consideration.
Comment by drtkw on a trader’s discussion board...
“The
world is in a position whereby it has consumed more than it would've otherwise
consumed over the last 30 yrs, by utilizing credit (debt) which allows a
consumer to pull future demand forward into the present via borrowing. Therefore
to restore the balance, it is necessary to have a period of less consumption
(i.e. deflation) to remove this "future consumption brought forward"
as represented by debt.
Now we see the manicured
hand set (global banking syndicate and their political lackey elites) printing
money in order to prevent this reduction in consumption, so I ask you a simple
question; Does printing money, i.e. putting ink on a piece of paper) create
"value" or does it simply skew the winner/loser balance toward
the printers (the banksters)? I think it is obvious that printing doesn't
change the fact that there is an excess (30 yrs worth) of consumption over
production, on credit, and that printing doesn't change that fact but just lets
the elites who are printing the money, be less hurt than Joe6pak, who bears the
lion’s share of the suffering.
We will have a
depression, regardless of what the FED and other criminal elites do and it is
upon us.” He is not alone in this
opinion, although most wouldn't use the term "depression.".
For
my part, I will continue to follow NTSM guidance and exit the stock market when
analysis suggests it.
NTMS
SUMMARY
The
NTSM analysis is BUY today.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 90% long in the trading portfolio…and still cautiously optimistic.
Just a reminder: 100%
invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks. Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance
for risk.
