The
Navigate the Stock Market system switched back to BUY today, even though the
S&P 500 was down 1.25% to 1250.
It
will be interesting to see how the rest of this Holiday season goes. Last year the S&P went nowhere during the
break between Christmas and New Year’s Day; it finished a few tenths from where
it started. Perhaps this year will be
more eventful, but perhaps not too eventful.
The S&P 500 would need to drop below 1210 before I would be
worried. That’s where the short-term bottom
trend line is now.
On
a longer term chart view, there seems to be a neutral wedge pattern (falling highs
and rising lows) that is one of those patterns that is not well defined, i.e.,
it can be resolved either up or down. So
I’ll stick with the NTSM analysis – I’m not a chart guy anyway.
For
Government employees and Military: I note that the “S” fund (Wilshire 4500) is
outperforming the “C” fund (S&P 500) by about 5% since 6 October when the
NTSM switched to Buy. So, I will remain
in the S-fund for the time being. That opinion is bolstered by a recent article
in the WSJ suggesting that small-cap stocks will continue to outperform large
caps.
I
remain 100% long in the 401k due to the NTSM BUY signal of 6 October 2011 and I
am 90% long in the trading portfolio.
