from dshort.com
“If employment was indeed
surging as reported by the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) BLS - the online
help-wanted index should be on the rise. The chart below shows the Help-Wanted
index as compared to historical employment...What this means, when taking into
account the recent slate of economic weakness, is that post-election we are
likely to see many of the recent job gains revised away as the data aligns
itself with overall economic activity. The STA composite employment index is
likewise pointing towards higher jobless claims numbers in the months ahead and
falling export orders will continue to impact corporate profitability and their
need to increase employment…So, while I don't believe in conspiracy theories,
the underlying data is simply not supportive of the recent improvement in the
jobs picture.”
For the full story, see dshort.com at the following link…http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Lance-Roberts-121105-ISM-Composite-Employment-Black-Helicopters.php
My comment: This article
includes a number of economic points with charts and data that support what
John Hussman has been suggesting - the economy is turning down. Be cautious.
MARKET
RECAP
Tuesday the S&P 500
rose 3/4% to 1428 (rounded) and VIX fell almost 4-1/2% to 17.58.
Market internals (breadth
and new-highs/new-lows) are still neutral to slightly negative. There was selling late in the day so the Pros
took profits and probably didn’t want to hold positions before the election.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained HOLD Tuesday.
On the positive move today
the Volume indicator switched to neutral;
the VIX indicator got slightly worse, but overall I’m a little further
away from a sell since the NTSM system is slightly more positive. It could still switch in a hurry though.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352.
I currently have a 50%
stock allocation overall. For my age,
that is what many advisors recommend as a fully invested position, however, I
am normally much more aggressive. I have
less invested in stocks now because there’s a lot of risk.
