“New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased slightly to $216.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up five of the last six months, followed a 9.2 percent September increase... Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent.” Full Press Release at....
www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
My cmt: There was virtually no growth when defense is excluded.
OECD Slashes Global Growth Estimates
(Breakout)
“Three mediocre years
after the last recession ended, one of the world's leading economic policy
advisers is warning that another may be on the way, as dawdling leaders in
Europe and the U.S. fail to deliver the comprehensive solutions needed to
restore growth...’After five years of crisis, the global economy is weakening
again,’ says OECD's top economist...”
Full story and Video at...http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/five-funk-oecd-slashes-global-growth-estimates-160922498.html
(OECD = Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)
JOHN HUSSMAN (another
reminder)
“...market conditions have
moved in a two-step sequence from overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising
yield conditions...to a breakdown in market internals and trend-following
measures. Once in place, that sequence has generally produced very negative
outcomes, on average. In that context, even impressive surges in advances
versus declines (as we saw last week) have not mitigated those outcomes, on
average, unless they occur after stocks have declined precipitously from their
highs. Our estimates of prospective stock market return/risk, on a blended
horizon from 2-weeks to 18-months, remains among the most negative that we’ve
observed in a century of market data.” John Hussman, PhD, Weekley Market Commentary for 26 Nov 2012. Full market commentary at...
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/
MARKET
RECAP
Tuesday the S&P 500
was down 0.5% to 1399 (rounded). VIX was
up 2.7% to 15.92.
VIX IS THE KEY NOW
The following chart says
it all. With VIX around 15 and the
S&P 500 near recent highs the market is at a key juncture; unless VIX falls
from here (and the S&P 500 heads up) there is likely to be trouble ahead
that will take us down into correction territory or worse. {Revised because I dont' want to overstate this too much.}
Chart from Kimble Charting
Solutions on the dshort.com
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Kimble-121126-Gone-with-the-Wind.php
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained HOLD Tuesday.Since the down-trend still remains intact, I didn’t sell my short positions. I may regret that since market internals continued to turn up. Sooner or later the market will probably follow.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the SELL signal,
7 November 2012, I moved out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P
500. Because of the extreme negativity I
have noted from Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near
15% invested in stocks and I am still holding short positions. I’ll cover if the market moves up. 
