"I think if we have to have a moderate recession to solve this huge fiscal problem that's in front of us -- I think that's a very small price to pay," he said. "We're not going to get out of this thing without pain…"If you have to allow a rise in taxes to cut a deal on a major benefit cut, that's a good deal for me," said Greenspan." Story at…
http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/16/news/economy/greenspan-recession-debt/index.html?iid=HP_LN
MARKET
RECAP
Friday the S&P 500 was
UP 1/2% to 1360 (rounded). VIX fell
about 9% to 16.41.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained SELL Friday.
VIX is switched back to
neutral Friday after just barely inching over to a negative value Thursday, so I am not
so confident that VIX has confirmed the downturn.
Market internals were
mixed today. Volume was up a lot today (about
30% over the 20-dMA) so a lot of investors may have been buoyed by the
conciliatory language after leaders in the House and Senate met with the
President. The market did trend up from
there, but sold off later, only to rally at the end of the day. I am still somewhat skeptical that this
correction is only about the election and fiscal cliff.
There was late day buying
and that is bullish. This trend would
have to continue before I’d change my bearish position. It may be that traders didn’t want to hold
short positions over the weekend.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the SELL signal,
7 November 2012, I moved out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P
500. Because of the extreme negativity I
have noted from Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near
15% invested in stocks. I also took
short positions on the morning of the 8th that make me currently net
short the S&P 500. (I am using
Guggenheim (formerly RYDEX) funds and 2x Short ETF, SDS. Those are dangerously volatile so I don’t
recommend them unless you have a BIG tolerance for risk. Also, if they are held too long they may not
perform wel
