Then again…maybe not. Here’s a note from the WSJ…
3rd QUARTER GDP GROWTH REVISED UPWARD
TO 2.7% (Wall Street Journal)
“The nation's gross domestic
product—the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the
U.S.—advanced at an annual rate of 2.7% between July through September…But the
factors that led to the upward revision—growing inventories, strong federal
spending and robust exports—may not persist. Add in other headwinds, and the
economy could struggle to grow in the fourth quarter.” Full story at… http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324205404578148902055614568.html
GDP IMPROVES FOR ALL THE
WRONG REASONS (Yahoo Finance)
“…the entire bump higher came
from a build in inventories that masked troubling reductions in both consumer
and business spending.” Story at…http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/gdp-improves-wrong-reasons-165129082.html
And then there’s the
Economic Cycle Research Institute with their continued recession call…
US IS ALREADY IN RECESSION
(ECRI) (The Daily Ticker from YAHOO Finance)
“The U.S. economy grew 2.7% in the third quarter, up from a
previously reported 2% the government reported Thursday. But the guts of the
report raised some concern, notably a big increase in inventories and a big downward
revision to consumer spending…For Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic
Cycle Research Institute…"The evidence is starting to mount a recession is
already underway, and we're a few months into it," he says, suggesting the
downturn began in July. Story and Video at…http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/ignore-gdp-fiscal-cliff-u-already-recession-ecri-174612999.html
THE DATA DOESN’T SUPPORT RECESSION
ARGUMENT (dshort)
“As for the change in
private inventories…The increase reported today isn't the pattern we've seen in
advance of the two 21st century recessions…during recessions, PCE generally
increases as a percent of GDP whereas Private Investment declines. That is not
what we're seeing in the current data.”
Analysis at dshort.com, Advisor Perspectives…http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/GDP-Components.php
FED STIMULUS LIKELY IN
2013 (front-page headline, WSJ, 29 Nov 2013)
I am not an economist so I
don’t have an informed opinion on the subject of recession. It is not currently anticipated by the
Markets, at least not in the numbers I track.
There is one point of concern though – if the economy is slowly and
steadily improving, why is the Federal Reserve signaling continued stimulus for
2013 as reported in today’s WSJ? They
say that it’s because of the job market, but perhaps there is more.
All of this is not cause
for panic; but it is reason enough for me to be more cautions than usual
regarding stock investing.
MARKET
RECAP
Thursday the S&P 500
was up 0.4 % to 1416 (rounded). VIX fell
about 3% to 15.06.
VIX has fallen back to 15
again and that has been an area that has sometimes led to some selling since
the VIX has not managed to get much below 15. I expect that the market will turn down again
from these levels.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained HOLD Thursday.
Our volume indicator in
the NTSM system (a modified On-Balance-Volume method) is a trend following indicator,
so it is not surprising that the NTSM volume indicator has now turned positive. Other indicators are in neutral territory so
unless we have some surprising developments, I don’t expect the NTSM indicators
to switch to buy in the immediate future.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the SELL signal,
7 November 2012, I moved out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P
500. Because of the extreme negativity I
have noted from Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near
15% invested in stocks and I am still holding short positions. (I have violated about every trading rule
there is with my short positions. I should’ve
set some mental stops and bailed long ago.
I may hold the position until the market goes back to test the 1353
level, unless the pain gets too great.) 
