By Jeffry Bartash WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - "Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 363,000 in the week of Oct. 21-27, keeping them in a range that indicates little change in U.S. hiring patterns over the past few months." For full story see...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-drop-9000-to-363000-2012-11-01?dist=beforebell
MARKET RECAP
Thursday the S&P 500 was up more than 1% to 1428 (rounded) and VIX fell more than 10% to 16.69.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical
Index was up more than 2-1/2% today (Thursday) and in general, as I have noted
many times, this is an indication that investors don’t think a recession is
coming anytime soon. The cyclical stocks are recession sensitive and if
investors believed a recession was imminent, the cyclicals would be falling
faster than the S&P 500. The out-performance
of cyclical-stocks vs. the S&P 500 is true on a longer term basis too, so
this isn’t just a 1-day story.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained HOLD Thursday.
NTSM
indicators improved significantly making a sell-signal less likely in the near
future.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352.
I currently have a 50%
stock allocation overall. For my age,
that is what many advisors recommend as a fully invested position, however, I
am normally much more aggressive. I have
less invested in stocks now because there’s a lot of risk.
