"...analysts who interpret economic data as a stream of unconnected anecdotes are likely to find recent data encouraging, and will easily dismiss any concern about a U.S. recession on that basis. For our part, the internals of the economic picture - new orders, backlogs, real income growth, and even the employment components of prominent economic surveys - continue to deteriorate. Based on dozens of economic variables and methods that account for leading/lagging relationships (e.g. unobserved components estimates) our view remains that the U.S. economy has already entered a recession. We are certainly open to changing that view in the event that we observe a broad and sustained firming in leading economic measures, particularly those that are broadly based on orders, production, sales and income. But at present, those measures remain generally weak, and their direction remains flat to down (though the bright spot is that they are not collapsing as they did in 2008), while the employment-related measures have deteriorated significantly.” – John Hussman, PhD, Weekly Market Comment for November 5, 2012. Full commentary at…
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/
MARKET RECAP
Monday the S&P 500 rose 0.22% to 1417 (rounded) and VIX rose almost 5% to 18.49.
A rising VIX is not good
and the VIX indicator is not very far away from a sell signal. If the VIX indicator flashes sell it will
swing the entire NTSM analysis over to sell. If it does, I will be selling out of my stock
positions.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained HOLD Monday.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352.
I currently have a 50%
stock allocation overall. For my age,
that is what many advisors recommend as a fully invested position, however, I
am normally much more aggressive. I have
less invested in stocks now because there’s a lot of risk.
