Chart from the Philly FED at…
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/
ATA TONNAGE INDEX
The UCLA-Ceridian Pulse of
Commerce Index that tracked trucking gas usage (and had a high correlation to
recession prediction) is no longer published.
Here’s another trucking index based on tonnage. Super-storm “Sandy” hit at the end of October
so only minor effects may be shown in the chart; a sharp downturn started
before the storm. 
http://www.truckline.com/pages/article.aspx?id=1073%2F8e1c7279-ed27-4c03-b189-ceeee26bbb12
RECESSION CONCERNS
(StreetTalk Live – Lance Roberts)
“This past week the
monthly release of the Leading Economic Indicators showed that the
leading-to-lagging indicator ratio dropped to 89.5 which matches the lowest
level in more than 2 1/2 years. Historically when the leading-to-lagging
ratio has fallen below 91 the economy was either in, or about to be in, a
recession.” Full story at...
http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1342-chart-of-the-day-lei-leading-to-lagging-ratio.html
NTSM RECESSION
INDICATOR
The NTSM
recession indicator simply compares the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC) to
the S&P 500 to see which is performing better. If investors were betting on a recession, the
CYC would be falling faster than the S&P 500. Except for the last 10-days, when the CYC has
underperformed the S&P 500, the CYC has been outperforming the S&P 500
so there seems to be little recession fear currently built into the markets.
While recession concerns seem
to be rising (at least I am finding more folks blogging about recession), the
markets haven’t agreed yet and that’s what counts.
MARKET
RECAP
Monday the S&P 500 was
down 0.2% to 1406 (rounded). VIX was up 2.4%
to 15.50.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained HOLD Friday.
Today’s
chart of the S&P 500 shows the down-trend currently remains intact, but
just barely. Some are suggesting that
the low on 15 November was a technical bottom and it’s up from here. When I look at the data for 15 Nov, the
volumes looked too high and the new-high/new low data was ugly, so I think the
1353 level will be retested. In other
words, the S&P 500 will drop to the 1353 level again and investors will
then decide where to go from there.
Unfortunately, in the meantime the market could go up to test the 1430
or even the 1460 level and that process can be nerve wracking.
Since
it looks like the market internals are starting to turn up, that may be the
most likely direction in the short term.
Internals often lead the market.
There’s
nothing to do but wait, but I’ll cover shorts tomorrow – those can always be
reset if the market tanks from here. No
point in falling on my sword. I’ll wait
for more information before making any other investment moves.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the SELL signal,
7 November 2012, I moved out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P
500. Because of the extreme negativity I
have noted from Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near
15% invested in stocks. 
