“I think we are now beginning or very soon about to begin the next (slightly bigger) dip lower, of 5% to 10% over Q2, taking the S&P from the 1575/1550s down to the 1450/1475 zone…I am fully expecting new all-time nominal highs...in Q3...Lastly, as per my last note, I remain as convinced as ever that the bullishness that will likely prevail at that time will come under extreme scrutiny and pressure over late 2013 and 2014.” - Bob Janjuah, Managing Director, Head of GFI Tactical Asset Allocation, Nomura International Plc. Full story at ZeroHedge at...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-26/bob-janjuah-tactical-short-we-are-not-there-yet-big-one
THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT?
“I always like to remind clients that, in the run up to
the 2000 and 2007 highs, before the significant collapses that followed in the
subsequent 18/24 months, markets seemed infatuated in Greenspan and his famous
‘Put’ the same way today’s teenagers seem infatuated with Justin Bieber,
investor complacency was off the charts, volatility was at record lows, belief
in ‘the system’ was sky high, and positioning was at extremes.” - Bob Janjuah
on his blog at...http://bobjanjuah.blogspot.com/
UNDERSTANDING THE GREEK BANK FAILURES IN 3-SENTENCES
(Mike Shedlock)
“What sunk Cyprus now rather than later was Cyprus was dumb
enough to be in Greek bonds. So why did
Cyprus stay in Greek bonds so long? The answer is Cypiot banks were foolish
enough to believe ECB president Jean Claude Trichet when he insisted there
would be no haircuts on Greek bonds.” – Mish Shedlock, Global Economic
Advisors. Full story at… http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-axe-is-in-position-only-timing-of.html#sLXkVOIKXQvQLalo.99
MARKET RECAP
Wednesday, the S&P 500 finished down 1Pt to 1563 (rounded).
Wednesday, the S&P 500 finished down 1Pt to 1563 (rounded).
VIX rose 3% to 13.15 so the options boys aren’t all that sure about
market direction. In fact the VIX
indicator in the NTSM system is squarely in neutral position so VIX is not
giving any clue about future market direction.
NTSM
Wednesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close. The numerical analysis has not yet confirmed
my gut feeling.
Sentiment is a sell; Price is a buy; and Volume and VIX are in neutral. Like the market, confusion reigns.
It still looks like the market is at, or very close to a short-term top. I have no indication that this is going to be
anything more than a 10% correction. I’ll
try to post more tomorrow regarding some further details, but to list some reasons
now: Breadth, %-above the 200dMA, ICI money market flows; statistical analysis
of price-volume action; sentiment; price action in mid-March all are showing
signs of trouble.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500-1525),
due to my risk tolerance rather than the numerical NTSM analysis. To put it bluntly, I currently have no
tolerance for risk. (If I were strictly
following the NTSM numbers, I'd still be heavily invested in stocks.) My
reasoning may be found at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
