“The Conference Board’s index declined to 59.7 from a revised three-month high of 68 in February, data from the New York-based private research group showed today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected the March measure would fall to 67.5. ‘This is really quite a big hit,’ said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors Inc. in White Plains, New York, who projected a reading of 63. ‘The longer confidence stays down and the further it falls, the more chance that it will be reflected in weaker spending.’” Full story at...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-26/consumer-confidence-in-u-s-declined-more-than-forecast-in-march.html
INVESTMENT COMPANY INSTITUTE
The Investment Company Institute (ICI) reported inflows of 849-million
dollars in domestic long-term mutual funds for the weekly reporting period
ending 13 March 2013. So after 2-weeks
of outflows totaling 1.7-billion dollars, some new money returned to Domestic
Equity funds. ICI has seen inflows in US
stock funds since January 2013.
As I have previously noted, the only time money went into domestic stock funds for more than
one-week over the past 2-years (before January of 2013) was at the last top in February,
right before the stock market corrected 6%.
That was followed by choppiness and eventually a 19% correction that
completed in October of 2011
1ST QUARTER EARNINGS PROJECTIONS (FactSet.com)
“The estimated earnings growth rate for Q1 2013 is -0.7%. If this is the
final growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second year-over-year
decline in earnings for the index in the past three quarters... The estimated
revenue growth rate for Q1 2013 is 0.6%, down from an estimate of 0.9% at the
start of the quarter. Only two of the ten sectors are predicted to report a
decline in revenues: Energy and Materials.” - FactSet.com
The following commentary is more cynical than I like, but really, what
if everything the Treasury and Federal Reserve is doing (and has done) has been
to save their crony friends at the too big to fail (TBTF) banks?
WHY THE GOVERNMENT IS DESPERATELY TRYING TO INFLATE A HOUSING BUBBLE –
Hugh Smith
“If we want to understand why the U.S. government is doing its best to
inflate another housing bubble, we must start with the Devil's Pact partnership
of the government and the "too big to fail" banks. Simply
put, the TBTF banks would not exist without the Federal Reserve and Federal
government bailouts, subsidies and protection from transparent marked-to-market
pricing of the banks' collateral and risk.
The basis if this partnership is simple: the banks'
enormous profits and financial power have enabled them to capture the
regulatory machinery of the government (the Central State) and the political
machinery controlled by its elected officials.”
Full story at Financial Sense at...
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/charles-hugh-smith/why-government-is-desperately-trying-to
MARKET RECAP
Tuesday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.8% to 1564 (rounded) as it squeaked up to a new high. So the market made a new high one-day after I called the top.
Tuesday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.8% to 1564 (rounded) as it squeaked up to a new high. So the market made a new high one-day after I called the top.
I think the market is trying to make me look stupid. HEY MARKET, DON’T BOTHER - I DO A GOOD ENOUGH
JOB LOOKING STUPID WITHOUT YOUR HELP!
Well, it was only one-half point above the old top and Tuesday’s top was
on very low volume (20% below this month’s average volume), just like the last
top (8-trading days ago). I’d say there’s
not a lot of conviction from investors at this point.
Today’s (Tuesday’s) close was 9.2% above the 200-dMA. At the prior top on 14 Mar it was 9.9% above
the 200-dMA.
VIX fell 7% to 12.77 so that’s good news for the bulls.
The 10-day moving average of the percent of stocks advancing continues
to fall. The market is going up, but
fewer and fewer stocks are participating. Over the past 10-days, 53% of stocks have gone
up. In the middle of January it was 64%. That trend signals a market that is not too
healthy and makes us wonder how much longer the trend will persist.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500-1525),
due to my risk tolerance rather than the numerical NTSM analysis. To put it bluntly, I currently have no
tolerance for risk. (If I were strictly
following the NTSM numbers, I'd still be heavily invested in stocks.) My
reasoning may be found at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
