Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Trucking Keeps on…well, you know

ATA TRUCK TONNAGE UP (ATA, Arlington, VA)
“The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.6% in February after increasing 1% in January.... Tonnage has now increased for four straight months, which hasn’t happened since late 2011... Compared with February 2012, the SA index was up a solid 4.2%, just below January’s 4.6% year-over-year gain. Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2012, the tonnage index is up 4.4%. In 2012, tonnage increased 2.3% from 2011... ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “While I think this is a good sign for the industry and the economy, I’m still concerned that freight tonnage will slow in the months ahead as the federal government sequester continues and households finish spending their tax returns. A little longer term, I think the economy and the industry are poised for a more robust recovery.”  Press release at...
http://www.truckline.com/pages/article.aspx?id=1094%2F8e1c7279-ed27-4c03-b189-ceeee26bbb12

Copper may be falling (see yesterday’s blog), but trucking keeps on...well, you know.  Speaking of copper, here’s a more technical analysis of recent copper action:

DR. COPPER: NOW TESTING 2009 EXPANSION SUPPORT (Financial Sense - 3/19/2013)
“This morning copper has broken through 3.50 to trade slightly below the cyclical support which has been in place since the economic “recovery” began in 2009. A barometer of global demand, this breach if it holds, has traditionally been a leading indicator for the risk market cycle. This time different?”  - Danielle Park.  For more discussion see...
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/danielle-park/dr-copper-now-testing-2009-expansion-support

MARKET RECAP
Wednesday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.7% to 1559 (rounded). VIX was down 12% to 12.67.

NTSM
Wednesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close.

MY INVESTED POSITION
With long-term funds, I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March, due to my risk tolerance rather than the numerical NTSM analysis.  To put it bluntly, I currently have no tolerance for risk.  (If I were strictly following the NTSM numbers, I'd still be heavily invested in stocks.) My reasoning may be found at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html